SunSirs: Weak Decline in China Wheat Market in the First Half of 2023

According to the monitoring data of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the feed raw material market in the first half of 2023 was mainly weak and downward, with a weak overall rebound. The feed raw material index oscillated and fell by nearly 10%. On June 30th, the feed raw materials were 1,136 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 16.29% from the cycle's highest point of 1,357 points (2022-11-10), and an increase of 52.07% from the lowest point of 747 points on April 10th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2014 to the present)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the first half of 2023 (1.1-6.30), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose or fell in the price list of feed raw materials, 4 commodities that fell, and 0 commodities that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities that rose were rapeseed meal (6.29%); The main commodities that fell were DDGS (-19.36%), soybean meal (-15.51%), and wheat (-10.42%).

In the first half of 2023, the overall decline in the feed raw material sector was the main, with DDGS experiencing the largest decline. In addition, corn, wheat, and soybean meal all fell, resulting in a drop of over 12% in DDGS. Only rapeseed meal saw an overall increase, which was far less than the decline in DDGS, leading to an overall decline in the feed sector in the first half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the wheat market continued to oscillate and decline for 5 months before experiencing a slight rebound, with an overall decline of 10.42%. In the first five months, due to poor demand for terminal flour, imported wheat continued to arrive in Hong Kong, and national reserve wheat auctioned into the market, resulting in loose supply and multiple negative factors. The wheat market continued to decline, with an overall decline of over 11%. In June, the domestic wheat harvest gradually came to an end, and grain depots in various regions continued to purchase new wheat at high prices. The price of Linchi corn continued to rise, and grassroots grain trading entities increased their prices. The domestic wheat market prices stopped falling and rebounded.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that in the first half of 2023, except for rapeseed meal, the main feed raw materials fell. The main reasons for the weakening of the feed raw material market are oversupply, poor demand, and limited driving effect of futures market. In the second half of the year, due to the impact of El Nino weather, the supply of feed raw materials is expected to tighten and increase, with positive support. The overall feed raw material sector will experience a rebound.

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