SunSirs: The Vinyl Cyanide Market Fluctuated and Declined in the First Half of the Year, with a Slight Upward trend Expected in the Second Half of the Year-I

Vinyl cyanide market fluctuated and declined in the first half of the year

In 2023, the Vinyl cyanide market fluctuated and fell, rising in the early stage and falling in the later stage. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 30th, the bulk water price in the Vinyl cyanide market was 7,887 RMB/ton, a decrease of 17.84% from 9,600 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year; Compared to the peak of 10,800 RMB/ton in February, it had decreased by 26.97%.

Analysis review

On the one hand, the price of raw material propylene slightly increased at the beginning of the year, and in addition, downstream construction resumed after the holiday, leading to a slight recovery in the Vinyl cyanide industry; Later, with the production of 330,000 tons/year of new units, weak demand and raw materials declining, the Vinyl cyanide market fell. In May, as costs and demand further weakened, the Vinyl cyanide market showed a rapid and significant downward trend.

The overall price of Vinyl cyanide in the first half of 2023 was lower than the previous two years, mainly affected by the increase in supply. According to SunSirs, in the second half of 2021 alone, there will be an additional production capacity of 650,000 tons/year; In 2022, a total of 650,000 tons/year of new Vinyl cyanide units had been put into operation, including Tianchen Qixiang, Lihuayi, and Liaoning Jinfa; In the first half of 2023, 330,000 tons/year units such as Jihua (Jieyang) and Dongfang Petrochemical was put into operation; And there will be over 1 million tons/year of Vinyl cyanide units planned to be put into operation between 2024. The production capacity of Vinyl cyanide was gradually increasing, and the supply of Vinyl cyanide had significantly increased.

The trend of Vinyl cyanide market in the first half of 2023 was mainly divided into four stages:

Phase 1: From January to February, some Vinyl cyanide factories were shut down for maintenance. In addition, with downstream recovery and support from raw material prices after the Spring Festival, the Vinyl cyanide market rebounded and prices rose;

Phase 2: From March to April, on the one hand, the new production capacity had an impact on the supply side, and on the other hand, there was some support from downstream demand during the traditional peak season, Vinyl cyanide market fluctuated and weakened;

Phase 3: Towards the end of the month, there were expectations of maintenance for multiple devices, and the Vinyl cyanide quotation slightly increased;

Phase 4: From May to June, on the one hand, the price of raw material propylene had significantly decreased, and the cost center of Vinyl cyanide had shifted downwards; On the other hand, the pressure on the supply side had rebounded once again due to the restart of the early maintenance equipment. In addition, after the traditional peak season ended, downstream demand had gradually weakened and the starting point was low, the price of Vinyl cyanide significantly decreased.

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