SunSirs: China Domestic Methanol Market fell first and then rose in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. From June 1st to 29th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market remained at 2,161 RMB/ton, with a balanced price increase and decrease during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 28.52%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was weak and the support for methanol production costs was weakened. The Baofeng plant was restored, and the supply in mainland China increased. Additionally, the local formaldehyde load was reduced, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

In the first half of June, the domestic methanol market continued to decline, with coal prices falling, and support for methanol production costs weakening. Traditional demand entered the off-season and demand was weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices were restored, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy had production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

In the second half of June, the domestic methanol market was in a weak state of consolidation. With the arrival of high temperature weather, there were signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there was no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side remained relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand.

At the end of June, the domestic methanol market has rebounded. The narrow upward trend in raw coal prices provides some support for methanol prices. At the same time, some downstream devices are operating and actively replenishing goods, driving some demand. At the same time, some major industrial enterprises are undergoing equipment maintenance, resulting in a gradual depletion of social inventory and a decrease in port inventory. Overall, there are many positive factors.

By the end of June 29, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,114 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,170 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,114 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,144 RMB/ton in the late trading session, an increase of 60 RMB/ton or 2.88% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,134,258 hands, the position was 1,925,785 hands, and the daily increase was 144,852.

In the future, the cost support is expected to be average in the short term, but the supply side is expected to show some positive results. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise.

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