SunSirs: China Methanol Market Fluctuates Narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated within a narrow range. From June 9th to 16th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,075 RMB/ton to 2,074 RMB/ton. The price fell by 0.04% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 2.85%, a month on month decrease of 11.55%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.30%.

The domestic methanol market is in a weak state of consolidation. With the arrival of high-temperature weather, there are signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there has been no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side is still relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand.

By the end of June 16, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,044 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,074 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,042 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,058 RMB/ton in the end of the day, an increase of 34 RMB/ton or 1.68% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,479,147 lots, the position was 1,811,677 lots, and the daily increase was 5,616 lots.

On the cost side, it is difficult to achieve significant improvement in short-term demand, and the coal market may still operate under pressure. High temperature weather will continue to expand its scope and intensity, increasing residents' demand for refrigeration, driving the speed of power plant storage, and increasing coal demand.

Demand side, downstream MTBE: Debao Road and Dongming Qianhai have plans to start construction recently, and MTBE demand may increase; Downstream acetic acid: Guangxi Huayi will resume full load, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; The demand for formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may not change significantly. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, middling coal Yanchang, Inner Mongolia Dongri, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical, Shanxi and Henan each have a set of devices for maintenance; Shanxi Yueanda, Guangxi Huayi, Shenhua Mengxi, Anhui Linhuan, Hengxin High tech, and Shaanxi Weihua units have been restored. The overall loss is greater than the recovery, so the capacity utilization rate has decreased this week. The supply side of methanol is favorable and has a positive impact.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of June 15th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $300.00- $302.00 per ton, up $7 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 72.00-75.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 239.00-241.00 euros per ton, a decrease of 3 euros per ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. SunSirs methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may be dominated by weak consolidation.

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