SunSirs: The Methanol Market continues to be Low

According to the Commodity Market Analysis of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market continued to be low. From June 5th to 9th (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,180 RMB/ton to 2,075 RMB/ton. During the cycle, prices decreased by 4.82%, with a month on month decrease of 13.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.89%.

The domestic methanol market continues to decline, with coal prices falling and methanol production cost support weakening. Traditional demand has entered the off-season and demand is weak. At the same time, some methanol parking devices have recovered, and new investment devices such as Xuzhou Longxingtai and Jiyang New Energy have production plans in the near future. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient.

By the end of June 9, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had risen. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,045 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,055 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,013 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,043 RMB/ton in the end of the day, an increase of 2 RMB/ton or 0.10% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 1,378,258 lots, the position was 1,746,563 lots, and the daily increase was 114,916 lots.

On the cost side, coal prices have weakened, but the inventory of enterprises is running at a low level, with little pressure. This provides some support for prices, and some northwest enterprises are still able to ship. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: a factory in East China has shut down, a unit in Henan has reduced its load, and the demand for dimethyl ether has decreased; Downstream chloride: Jiangsu Fuqiang continues to undergo maintenance, resulting in reduced demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi's inventory is expected to decrease negative, and formaldehyde demand may decrease. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of a set of devices in Hengxin High Tech, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Heilongjiang; Guangxi Huayi, Jiuyuan Chemical, and Sinopec SVW units have reduced production; Pucheng Clean Energy, Xinjiang Guanghui, and Jinfeng Wenxi devices have been restored. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased last week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 8th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $299.00- $301.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 74.00-77.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 253.00-255.00 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros/ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. SunSirs methanol analysts predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to be weak in China.

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