SunSirs: Supply and Demand Pressure Further Aggravates, PTA Slight Declines

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market price fell first and then rose this week, showing a downward trend as a whole. As of January 17, the market average price was 4,883RMB/ton, down 1.17% from the beginning of the week, down 23.65% year on year. At the beginning of the week, crude oil fell for several consecutive days, and the cost support weakened. At the same time, PTA faced the restart of multiple units, as well as the centralized maintenance of downstream polyester. Under the pressure of supply and demand, PTA price continued to decline. At the end of the week, it was affected by macro sentiment, and crude oil support rose slightly.

In terms of devices, Zhuhai BP's 1.1 million ton PTA device and Dushan energy's 1.1 million ton PTA device have been restarted successively, and the current PTA operation rate is around 89%. Next week, yishanhua's 2.25 million ton plant is planned to restart. In addition, Sinopec's 1.2 million ton plant load is 70%, and Hengli phase IV 2.5 million ton plant, of which 1.25 million ton line is put into operation and the load is increasing.

The downstream polyester plant has the demand for goods preparation before the festival, PTA spot transaction activity has increased. The starting load of polyester plant maintenance is increased by about 75%. Next week, it is estimated that 2 million tons/year polyester plant maintenance is expected, and the starting load will fall below 72%. The market price of polyester filament is stable, including 7,000.00-7,450.00RMB/ton for polyester poy 150D/48F, 8,600.00-9,050.00RMB/ton for polyester dty150D/48F, 7,600.00-7,950.00RMB/ton for polyester fdy 150D/96F. Near the Spring Festival, textile enterprises enter into the mode of shutdown and vacation, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms declines to about 14%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the stock up before the festival will gradually come to an end, the downstream polyester factory will also be further overhauled, the terminal weaving and polyester start-up will fall, the demand will fall again, and PTA accumulation pressure will intensify. However, at present, crude oil is in the period of production reduction, as well as the macro positive, which forms a certain support for PTA. Overall, PTA prices are expected to be weak before the festival.

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