SunSirs: Sorting out the Fluctuations in China Asphalt Market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market has been fluctuating and organized. From May 29th to June 2nd, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,771 RMB/ton to 3,784 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month decrease of 0.58%, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.50%. Recently, international crude oil has been operating weakly, coupled with rainfall in various regions, resulting in slightly flat demand and limited support for spot asphalt prices. There are differences in the situation of local refining, and the prices are mixed.

In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Changqing Petrochemical's intermittent resumption of production, Panjin Beili, Dalian Jinyuan's stable production, Kaiyi Petrochemical's stable production, and Qilu Petrochemical's resumption of asphalt production, driving an increase in construction in the area. The conversion of Jincheng and Dongming has led to a decrease in construction in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the total weekly production of asphalt is 579,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons month on month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for SunSirs was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. The cost side of the domestic oil industry chain is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. Some regions consume early stage resources, while rainfall in some regions leads to a decrease in downstream operating rates and a decrease in asphalt consumption. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

As of the close of June 2nd, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2308 was opened at 3,645 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,719 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,620 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,710 RMB/ton, up 92% or 2.54% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 219,779 lots, a holding volume of 129,854 lots, and a daily increase of -12,286 lots.

It is predicted that the supply will continue to rise and the market price will remain stable in the future. Downstream demand is weak and actual demand is weak. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that China domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

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