SunSirs: Rainy Weather Was Concentrated, and Wire Rod and Rebar Prices Slightly Decreased This Week (April 3-7)

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, as of April 7th, the price of rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region slightly decreased this week. As of the 7th, the average price of HRB400 rebar in the Jiangsu Zhejiang Shanghai region was about 4,085.56 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.95% compared to the beginning of the week; the average high line price of HPB300 in the Jiangsu Zhejiang Shanghai region was 4,304 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.05% compared to the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Market aspect: As the weekend approached, the national engineering demand was 85,243 tons, a 14.8% decrease compared to the previous trading day and a 14.6% decrease compared to the same period last week. From January to February, the national investment in real estate development reached 1,366.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; Among them, residential investment reached 1,027.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.6%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 7,502.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. From January to February, the sales area of commercial housing was 151.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, with residential sales area decreasing by 0.6%..

Inventory and Production: The weekly production and total inventory of wire rod and rebar both decreased this week.

On the upstream side, the coke market temporarily stabilized after a decline; port iron ore continued to undergo weak adjustments; the scrap steel market was operating to be weaker. Given the recent first round of coke reduction, iron ore prices had rebounded, and the cost center had shifted downwards. In addition, the concentrated rainy weather in East China had led to slow construction progress on construction sites, which dampened market confidence. The production of wire rod and rebar had slightly loosened, while the pace of demand release had significantly slowed down, and the decline in social inventory of wire rod and rebar had narrowed, forming a negative impact on the market.

Market outlook

As the weekend approached, downstream stocking demand had also been released, and the enthusiasm for terminal procurement had increased, and low priced resources had been moved up one after another. In the next few days, the weather in East China would clear up, and there might be a certain increase in the backlog of demand in the early stage. Therefore, driven by the rebound in transactions, it is expected that the domestic wire rod and rebar prices will be mainly stronger in the short term.

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