SunSirs: The Price of White granulated sugar Rose and Fell in China in 2022

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average price of white granulated sugar at the beginning of 2022 was 5,736 RMB/ton, the average price of first level sugar at the end of 2022 was 5,786 RMB/ton, the price rises by 0.87%, the price rose 0.87% compared to the same period last year, and the highest price of sugar during the year was 5,962 at 5,962 RMB/ton, the lowest price during the year was 5,690 RMB/ton.

In 2022, the price of white granulated sugar rose and fell throughout the year, and the price began to call back in December. According to the month of 2022, it can be seen that the maximum increase in the year was May, an increase of 1.47%. The largest decline in the year was August, with a decline of 2.10%.

Domestic main producing area white granulated sugar output data

The planting area of sugarcane remained basically stable throughout the country. The low temperature and flood in the seedling stage and the high temperature and drought in the elongation stage have adverse effects on the growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. It was estimated that the sugar yield in the whole region will decrease by about 5%, but the sugar yield will increase to 12.6% - 12.8% year on year. It is estimated that the sugar yield in the 2022/2023 pressing season in Guangxi will be about 6-6.1 million tons, flat or slightly reduced compared with the last pressing season.

The estimated sugar output in the 2022/2023 pressing season in China was 9.68 million tons, a slight increase compared with the last pressing season. The sugar beet planting area in the north has recovered significantly, but the sugar yield was lower than expected. It is estimated that the sugar yield will be 1.09 million tons, with an increase of 226,500 tons, including 600,000 tons in Inner Mongolia and 430,000 tons in Xinjiang.

From January to November 2022, China imported 1.0071 million tons of syrup and white granulated sugar premixed powder, an increase of 436,000 tons year-on-year, or 76.34%; The average CIF import price was 3,246.6 RMB/ton, an increase of 18.34% over the previous year, and the cost performance advantage decreased compared with the previous two years.

In November, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) increased the global sugar output in the 2022/2023 pressing season to 182.1 million tons, lowered the global sugar consumption to 176 million tons, and estimated that there was an excess supply of 6.185 million tons. The favorable weather has increased the sugar output of the main producing countries. It was estimated that the output of India and Thailand in 2022/2023 will be 35.5 million tons and 10.5 million tons respectively; The sugar output in central and southern Brazil was about 35 million tons in the 2023/2024 pressing season.

The domestic sugar price will change seasonally in 2023. Specifically, March and April are in the period of domestic sugar squeezing. Factors such as increased supply and low consumption season will suppress the disk price, and sugar price may fluctuate around the production cost. Since May, the domestic sugar has entered the pure sales period, and the inventory pressure has decreased. At this time, the number of imported sugar outside the quota has increased in Hong Kong, the linkage between domestic and foreign sugar markets has increased, and the sugar price has increased with the fluctuation of the external market. From July to August, the summer sugar consumption peak season was coming, and the sugar price may continue to rise. With the consumption of sugar inventory, it was not ruled out that there was a tail raising market of "nine gold and ten silver" at the end of the squeeze season. The apparent supply and demand data of the domestic sugar market in the 2022/2023 pressing season was balanced, which was slightly more relaxed than that in the 2021/2022 pressing season. It is expected that the sugar price will continue to fluctuate in the range, and the core price range will be 5,400-6,100 RMB/ton.

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