SunSirs: Macro Fluctuated in December 2022, Tin Price Rose
January 03 2023 11:05:25 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
In December 2022, the domestic 1# tin ingot market rose in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 186,910 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 205,410 RMB/ton at the end of the month, up 9.9% month on month.
On December 28, the nonferrous index stood at 1,219 points, up 10 points from the previous day, down 20.74% from 1,538 points (2021-10-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.82% from 607 points, the lowest point on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).
Analysis review
It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price fell more recently than rose, and it had declined as a whole.
In the spot market, the overall market fluctuated and rose this month. At the end of the year, the manufacturer's quotation was more cautious, and some enterprises had a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market turnover was average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole had not changed much, which still showed loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery increased slightly, and the market supply was loose. The downstream procurement intention remained on demand, and the actual market demand changed little. Although the holiday was approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday was average.
Market outlook
SunSirs expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.
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- 2024-02-07 SunSirs: The Holiday Atmosphere Was Strong, and the Tin Ingot Market Was Operating to Be Weaker (January 29-February 5)
- 2024-01-30 SunSirs: Stocking before Holiday, Tin Ingot Market Was Upward (January 19-26)
