SunSirs: Cement Prices in East China Fell after Clinker Fell

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China has been fluctuating and falling recently. The price at the beginning of the month was 407.00 RMB/ton, and the price on December 20 was 399.00 RMB/ton, down 1.97%, and the current price fell 34.41% year on year.

Recently, cement prices in some parts of East China have fallen. It can be seen from the above figure that the cement market has gradually declined recently. In November 2022, the cement output will be 191.72 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; From January to November, the cement output was 1,950.1 million tons, down 10.8% year on year. It is the lowest value in 11 years since 2012. At present, there are many rainy days in the south, and the construction progress of some construction sites is slowing down, resulting in poor demand. On December 19, the cement market price in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province declined by about 20 RMB/ton. At the beginning of December, cement clinker began to decline. Recently, with the further weakening of demand, the cement market showed a downward trend.

The third round of increase in the coke market has been implemented. At present, the cumulative increase has been three rounds, up 300-320 RMB/ton. At present, the coking market is in a good mood. Shanxi, Shandong and other major production areas have started the fourth round of increase of 100-110 RMB/ton, and the downstream steel mills have not responded. The operating rate of coking has increased slightly compared with the previous period. However, as the price of raw coking coal continues to rise, and the cost of coke enterprises entering the furnace continues to rise, some coke enterprises still maintain the original production limit, the overall supply of coke is still tight, and the inventory in the plant is low.

Downstream: The funding problem is still in place, and the demand recovery is poor. Specifically, the real estate investment margin has weakened again, and it is still bottoming out in the short term. In some areas, a small number of projects are under construction, and the support for cement market is weak.

According to the prediction of the business cooperative, with the coming of the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the demand of the East China market will further decline, and the cement inventory pressure will be greater. Therefore, SunSirs cement product analysts believe that China cement market will decline mainly in the short term.

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