According to data from Antaike, domestic cobalt salt and electrolytic cobalt output declined year-on-year in 2025, while lithium cobalt oxide production saw significant growth. In Q1 2026, industry supply and demand may undergo temporary adjustments due to raw material shortages and high costs.

I. Cobalt Salts: Output Declines Year-on-Year and Month-on-Month Amid Raw Material Shortages

In December 2025, domestic cobalt salt production (covering only cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride) reached 7,959 tons, down 31.2% year-on-year and 3.5% month-on-month. Annual cumulative output totaled approximately 102,000 tons, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease.

Core influencing factors can be summarized as follows: First, structural raw material shortages forced some enterprises to halt or reduce production due to supply disruptions. Second, carryover cobalt salt inventories from 2024 partially offset 2025 demand. Third, as the price differential between electrolytic cobalt and cobalt salts narrowed, the economic viability of producing cobalt salts via electrolytic cobalt remelting diminished, leading to near-stagnation in this segment's output.

II. Electrolytic Cobalt: Production Plummets Year-on-Year Amid Raw Material Constraints and High Inventory Levels

Electrolytic cobalt output exhibited a more pronounced decline: December 2025 production reached only 230 tons, down 96.0% year-on-year and 47.7% month-on-month. Annual total output amounted to approximately 34,000 tons, a 25.5% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a sustained slowdown in industry production pace.

This decline resulted from multiple negative factors: First, following the implementation of a cobalt export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the approval and testing processes for raw materials became more time-consuming. The first batch of quota-based raw materials is not expected to arrive in China until the end of the first quarter of 2026. Domestic smelters have been continuously depleting their raw material inventories while facing supply disruptions. Second, the production costs of electrolytic cobalt have inverted, squeezing corporate profit margins and forcing capacity contraction. Smelters face dual pressures of high raw material procurement costs and compressed product margins. Some enterprises proactively reduced output based on cost-benefit analysis to mitigate market risks. Finally, electrolytic cobalt consumption potential is limited, with substantial market inventories sufficient to meet downstream demand.

III. Lithium Cobalt Oxide: Demand Supports Strong Annual Growth

Lithium cobalt oxide production surged: December 2025 output reached 11,750 tons, up 39.1% year-on-year and flat month-on-month; annual production totaled 127,000 tons, a 40.5% increase year-on-year.

This robust growth was primarily driven by concentrated release of end-market demand. Driven by order front-loading in the consumer electronics sector and robust demand from the 3C segment (smartphones, laptops, etc.), lithium cobalt oxide orders surged in Q4 2025, pushing upstream capacity to full utilization.

Due to raw material shortages and elevated costs, production of cobalt salts, electrolytic cobalt, and lithium cobalt oxide is projected to decline in Q1 2026.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 26th, the benchmark price of potassium chloride, according to SunSirs, was 3583.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to the beginning of the month (3533.33 RMB/ton).

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