Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring by SunSirs, nickel prices fluctuated upwards last week. As of the end of the week, the spot nickel price was 149,150 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.37% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 15.97%.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, nickel prices have fallen for 5 weeks and risen for 7 weeks in the past 12 weeks, with a recent rapid increase in nickel prices.

Market Analysis

Macroeconomic perspective: At the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched an attack on Venezuela to seize resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland. Risk aversion increased, giving the dollar an opportunity to rebound. Oil prices fell, stock markets showed mixed performance, precious metals such as gold and silver corrected downwards, and copper prices faced downward pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the rediscount and relending rates.

Supply side: Indonesian nickel ore quotas were significantly reduced, coupled with unrest in mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to an expected 20% reduction in global nickel ore supply. LME and domestic exchange inventories continued to decline; although absolute levels remained high, the outflow trend had weakened the downward pressure on prices. Refined nickel production is expected to decrease month-on-month, and the short-term surplus situation has narrowed due to production cuts, but overall market spot supply remains relatively abundant. In November, China's refined nickel production was 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.

Demand side: Overall demand from the electroplating downstream sector remained relatively stable, with little prospect of growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounted for the majority, with strong demand from the military and shipbuilding sectors. Companies were buying on dips, and the emphasis on defense spending during the "Two Sessions" is a positive factor in the medium and long term. Stainless steel demand was average, and social inventories were being depleted slowly. Improved steel mill profits may increase supply pressure, and spot transactions remained cautious. Nickel pig iron prices recently increased slightly. Regarding nickel sulfate, after the peak season inventory build-up, downstream ternary battery production had slightly declined. New capacity coming online in the medium term will also be a limiting factor, and prices have recently fallen.

Market Outlook:

In summary, under the expectation of tightening supply from the mining sector, the nickel pig iron market was experiencing strong bullish sentiment, leading to higher price quotations from iron producers and traders. Stainless steel end-user demand was relatively weak during the off-season; downstream ternary battery manufacturers were mainly consuming existing inventory, resulting in a month-on-month decline in production. The rapid increase in nickel prices had led to increased overseas deliveries and inventory pressure. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to maintain a generally stronger and volatile trend.

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