With the advancement of anti-involution policies and the cold repair of some production lines, glass prices have experienced multiple rapid, temporary rebounds. However, such sudden changes in the supply side often bring more short-term shocks to the market. Due to persistently weak downstream orders, these rebounds lack staying power, and prices may even quickly fall back to previous lows.
Looking ahead, while short-term supply tightening may temporarily support prices, the overall supply-demand landscape remains relatively loose. Without strong policy measures to stimulate demand, the upside potential for each rebound cycle is likely to remain limited.
Two key variables warrant attention in the medium to long term: First, whether real estate completion data can stabilize and rebound, as this represents the core signal of genuine demand improvement; Second, the pace of capacity rationalization. Should industry losses widen further, prompting more production lines to undergo cold repairs and reducing daily melting capacity below 150,000 tons, the supply-demand dynamics could undergo a fundamental shift. Until then, glass futures prices are likely to maintain a weak pattern of “wide-range fluctuations at low levels.” Investors are advised to remain vigilant against the risk of pullbacks following each round of expectation-driven speculation.
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