According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, on January 16, 2025, the average price was 1,391 RMB/ton. Currently, coke enterprises are mainly operating weakly, with high inventory levels. The overall market supply is sufficient, and the recovery of steel mill profits is limited.
In terms of prices: On January 16th, the price of metallurgical coke in the Handan market was temporarily stable, with prices ranging from 1,495-1,525 RMB/ton for quasi dry quenching and 1,340 RMB/ton for quasi wet quenching, both of which are ex factory prices including taxes. On January 16th, the price of metallurgical coke in the Jinzhong market was temporarily stable, with prices ranging from 1,260-1,280 RMB/ton for quasi first level wet quenching, 1,525-1,550 RMB/ton for quasi first level dry quenching, and 1,525-1,675 RMB/ton for first level dry quenching, all of which are ex factory prices including taxes in cash. On January 16th, the price of metallurgical coke in the Tangshan market was temporarily stable, with the mainstream transaction price for first level dry quenching being 1,680 RMB/ton. The top mounted first level dry quenching report is 1,750 RMB/ton, all of which are factory price cash inclusive of tax.
On the demand side: Seasonal weakening: As the end of the year approaches, the seasonal weakening of steel demand is evident, and the production of blast furnace molten iron continues to decline. The support for coke demand is significantly weak, and the supply and demand pattern is becoming more relaxed: supply increases and demand decreases, and the supply and demand pattern of coke is becoming more relaxed, with prices continuing to be under pressure.
Supply side: Coking coal price: Raw coking coal is expected to maintain a tight balance, and is expected to operate at a high level in the second and fourth quarters. There is still pressure on the cost side of coke, and profit margin: Coking profits are expected to remain in a loss making state. The production intention of coke enterprises is not expected to be good, and the operating load is expected to remain at a median level.
The coke analyst from SunSirs believes that in the short term, the price of coke is running in a narrow and weak range, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient.
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