Last week (January 16th, 2026.01-01.23), PET bottle flakes first suppressed and then rose, while futures and spot prices rose synchronously. The low point of the week was on Monday, and it rose strongly on Friday. As of January 23rd, the main futures closed at 6,448 RMB/ton, up 8.0% from Monday; The mainstream spot price in East China is 6,340-6,400 RMB/ton, up 200-300 RMB/ton from the beginning of the week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 23, the average sales price in East China was 6,400 RMB/ton.
Core factor analysis
Strong cost support: Crude oil and PTA prices have risen, and the cost of PET raw materials has increased by about 4.1% this week. Cost transmission has driven up bottle chip quotations.
Supply side contraction is tight: the weekly output was 325,300 tons (month on month -0.94 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.24% (month on month -2.03 pct); Multiple device maintenance, tight supply of some goods, low inventory and low operating costs support prices.
Futures drive spot sentiment: The overall strength of the energy and chemical sector is strong, and bottle futures have risen significantly, boosting confidence in the spot market. Factories have raised their quotes by 50-200 RMB/ton.
On the demand side, there is a strong demand to support the bottom line: Downstream inventory replenishment is basically completed before the Spring Festival, with sporadic demand as the main focus. Transactions are concentrated in March orders, with prices rising but transaction volume not increasing.
SunSirs believes that in the short term, with cost support and tight supply, prices may remain strong, with an expected operating range of 6,300-6,500 RMB/ton; However, downstream demand during the off-season is weak, and the willingness to chase after price increases is limited, which may suppress future price increases.
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