According to a rapeseed market report released by consulting firm Rastock, Australia's rapeseed production for 2025/26 exceeded initial expectations, reaching 7.65 million tons, higher than the 7.23 million tons predicted by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources, Economics and Sciences (ABARES) on December 2, with Western Australia's production set to reach a historic high.
Australian rapeseed production reached 7.65 million tons, exceeding expectations by 420,000 tons. Western Australia's production reached a historic high, which will significantly increase the supply of rapeseed meal raw materials. An increase in supply may lead to downward pressure on spot prices, and if demand does not grow synchronously, the market will face the risk of oversupply. Combined with the recent rapeseed meal futures market (such as the closing price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange contract 2605 at 2,221 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB), the news of production exceeding expectations has strengthened bearish sentiment, and futures prices may further weaken.
The rapeseed production in Australia has increased to 7.65 million tons, far exceeding expectations. The production in Western Australia has reached a new high, which will directly increase the supply of raw materials for rapeseed oil production. The expansion of the supply side may lead to oversupply in the spot market, resulting in significant downward pressure on prices. Significant bearish rating -2, due to a production increase of 5.8% and no demand side positive offsetting, it is expected that spot prices will be significantly under pressure.
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