Price trend
According to monitoring data from SunSirs, the price of caustic soda first rose and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 936 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda in Shandong region was 907 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.1% and an increase of 6.46% compared to the same period last year.
On March 30th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 827 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 40.93% from the highest point of 1,400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 38.29% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Analysis review
According to survey data from SunSirs, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region was temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 980-1,050 RMB/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region was running weakly, with a mainstream market price of around 870-940 RMB/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.
The overall upward trend in caustic soda prices in early March was mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. Downstream alumina prices remained at 3,200-3,450 RMB/ton, indicating a decent demand for caustic soda. In late March, the overall price of caustic soda fell, and the main caustic soda inventory accumulated. With the main regional liquid caustic soda procurement prices further lowered. The main regional liquid alkali market has experienced a decline, and non aluminum demand was high, so it is necessary to wait and see. The market demand was average.
Market outlook
SunSirs’ analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been weak in the operating market, with accumulated inventory in some areas and average downstream demand. While supply continued to increase, demand has not shown significant improvement. Overall, it is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.
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