Price trend

The domestic ferrosilicon spot market has moved away from the weak and volatile trend seen at the end of the year, showing a slight recovery before the holidays. Market prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and traders were showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. According to data from the SunSirs commodity price analysis system, as of January 9th, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lump) in the Ningxia region was 5,280-5,400 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,318 RMB/ton, a 0.62% increase compared to before the holidays (end of December), representing a slight recovery in this period.

Influencing Factors

Raw Material Semi-coke Market:

The domestic semi-coke market, a core raw material for ferrosilicon production, remained stable with no significant fluctuations, providing solid cost support for ferrosilicon prices. Specifically, the mainstream price index for small-sized semi-coke in Fugu area of Shaanxi province was approximately 800 RMB/ton (cash, including tax), while the mainstream market price for small-sized semi-coke in Ningxia remained at 810-830 RMB/ton, unchanged from the end of December. The main reason for the stable operation of the semi-coke market was the relatively balanced supply and demand pattern. Upstream raw material lump coal prices remained stable, keeping cost pressure manageable for semi-coke producers. At the same time, demand from downstream industries such as ferrosilicon and calcium carbide remained stable, with procurement volumes maintaining normal levels, without any concentrated purchasing or reduced purchasing.

Demand Situation

Domestic ferrosilicon demand continued the pre-Chinese New Year off-season pattern, with overall demand remaining weak. Market transactions were mainly driven by essential end-user needs, and speculative demand remained absent. However, the release of some pre-holiday stocking demand led to a marginal improvement in demand. Looking at downstream industries, the steel industry, as the largest downstream market for ferrosilicon (accounting for approximately 60%-70%), saw relatively stable procurement demand due to steel mills gradually entering their maintenance off-season before the Chinese New Year. Hebei Iron & Steel Group's ferrosilicon tender quantity for January 2026 was 3,313 tons, an increase of 563 tons compared to the previous month, which boosted market sentiment to some extent, but the price has not yet been determined. The magnesium metal industry, as the second largest downstream market (accounting for approximately 15%), saw no significant fluctuations in production, and its procurement demand for ferrosilicon remained stable, without any significant increases or decreases.

Inventory Situation

Domestic ferrosilicon inventory shows the characteristics of "marginal accumulation of factory inventory and relatively stable social inventory," with overall inventory pressure remaining within a controllable range. From the perspective of manufacturers' inventory, as the pace of demand release before the holiday season lagged behind the pace of production replenishment, some ferrosilicon manufacturers experienced a slight accumulation of inventory. Currently, some manufacturers' delivery dates are scheduled as far out as late January 2026. From the perspective of overall industry inventory, although there is an increasing trend, the increase is relatively moderate, and there is no situation of inventory backlog.

Analysis and prediction

The domestic ferrosilicon spot market is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the short term, with prices remaining largely stable or showing slight upward potential. Positive factors include: firstly, solid cost support; secondly, the expected completion of steel mill tenders, particularly from major steel mills like Hebei Iron & Steel Group, whose January ferrosilicon tenders are yet to be priced. If the tender prices are higher than current market prices, it will significantly boost the spot market; thirdly, there is still some room for pre-holiday stocking demand. Negative factors include: firstly, the continued impact of the pre-Spring Festival off-season, leading to a gradual decrease in operating rates in the downstream steel industry; secondly, the gradual emergence of inventory accumulation pressure, as slight increases in production and continued weak demand will lead to a continued marginal increase in factory inventories; thirdly, strong market wait-and-see sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, most traders and downstream enterprises will gradually enter a semi-closed state before the holiday, making it difficult to generate effective upward momentum.

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