SunSirs : 이번 주 석탄 가격 추세 예측
January 12 2026 13:35:15
The Bohai Rim port market remains relatively stable, with upstream quotations holding firm while downstream demand remains weak. Price pressure is severe, and transactions are sparse. Coal prices in major producing regions are currently mixed, with end-users maintaining only sporadic purchases. Overall demand provides limited support to the market, leaving insufficient momentum for sustained price increases. However, rapid inventory declines at Bohai Rim ports, coupled with inverted shipping costs, have reduced upstream willingness to sell at low prices. Traders' sentiment has generally improved, with increased hoarding and reluctance to sell, pushing the market into a sideways trading phase.
Constrained by inverted pithead-to-port shipping costs and sluggish demand at Bohai Rim ports, market suppliers show limited enthusiasm for port shipments, resulting in overall low port intake levels. Following a new cold snap, temperatures in many southern regions fell below seasonal averages. Coastal power plants saw seasonal increases in daily coal consumption, while downstream long-term contract shipments remained stable. Port outflows fluctuated at mid-range levels, significantly outperforming inflows and driving continued inventory drawdowns. However, data indicates that overall inventory at Bohai Rim ports remains 3.3 million tons higher than the same period last year. Except for Qinhuangdao Port, other ports still hold excessively high levels. Furthermore, as supply gradually recovers and downstream demand shows limited improvement, the sustained upward momentum in coal prices lacks resilience.
석탄 생산지역의 생산과 출하량은 지난달 상반기 공급이 약간 줄어들었다.대친철도의 운송량은 여전히 부진하여 일일 선적량은 낮 ~ 중간 수준으로 유지되었다.연중 가장 추운 시기로 인해 열탄 수요가 계속 증가하고 있으며 8 개 성의 해안 발전소의 일일 소비량은 222 만 - 240 만 톤으로 증가하고 있습니다.보하이 림 (Bohai Rim) 항구의 석탄 재고가 급속히 고갈되고 있으며 석탄 시장의 상대적으로 느슨한 공급과 수요 상황은 계속 개선 될 것입니다.시장 석탄 가격은 단기적으로 상승 추세를 유지할 것으로 예상된다.앞으로, 생산 지역의 석탄 공급은 월별로 줄어들 수 있으며, 다친 선의 완전한 용량으로 복원하는 것은 여전히 매우 도전적입니다.일년 중 가장 추워지고 추운 기간이 다가오면서 열 석탄 수요가 크게 약화 될 것으로 예상되지 않습니다.보하이해 주변 항구에서 재고 감축이 계속됨에 따라 석탄 시장의 상대적으로 느슨한 공급과 수요 상황은 개선될 것으로 예상된다.이달 중순까지 시장 석탄 가격은 상승 추세를 연장할 것으로 예상된다.
Port coal prices showed a phased increase in the first half of the month. However, with the gradual recovery of Dazhong Railway's transport capacity and rising temperatures in East China next week, the market will stabilize, and the pace of price increases will slow. Furthermore, as prices approach the cost-effectiveness threshold and face potential pressure from high inventories, domestic coal prices will gradually come under pressure, entering a phase of stagnation and stabilization. However, this year's coldest period, the “Three Nines” (三ä¹), began on January 8 and will last until January 16. Together with the subsequent “Four Nines” (å››ä¹), this period constitutes the core coldest phase of the year. It is anticipated that residential heating demand will continue to rise in the latter half of this month. However, as the Spring Festival approaches in late January, some industrial enterprises in southern China will gradually suspend operations for the holiday, impacting industrial electricity consumption. Consequently, the growth in daily coal consumption at power plants is expected to be limited. Furthermore, with contracted coal supplies remaining stable, power plants' demand for spot coal purchases is unlikely to increase significantly, providing only limited support for coal prices.
