Price trend

Ethylene glycol prices fell in October. According to data from SunSirs, as of October 20, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,263.33 RMB/ton, down 2.77% from the average price of 4,385 RMB/ton on October 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at the port, the basis for the October 20, 2025, spot contract (minimum 500 tons) fell before recovering, maintaining a generally stable performance. This week's contract (before October 24) saw a range of +70 to +75. By market close, the basis for this week's contract was quoted at +73 to +74, while the basis for the November contract was quoted at +68 to +69. The CA delivery price for this week's contract ranged from 4,090 to 4,130 RMB/ton.

Domestic spot prices for coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) range from 3,830 to 4,070 RMB/ton per truckload.

As of October 17th, recent negotiated prices for ethylene glycol in the overseas market were around $479 to $480/ton.

The main reasons for the recent decline in ethylene glycol prices were:

1. Increased supply

Supply: Domestic total capacity has risen to 77% (including syngas capacity at 81.89%). Market liquidity, coupled with the arrival of Yulong Petrochemical's supply and an expected 650,000 tons of imports this month, means supply is currently relatively ample.

2. Inventory rose                                  

As of October 16, the inventory of major ports in East China was 493,000 tons (an increase of 137,900 tons compared with September 29), among which the increase in inventory in Taicang was more obvious.

Variables influencing ethylene glycol prices in the future:

Supply side: Previous negative factors weakened

The dual factors of production starts and port arrivals influence the pace of inventory accumulation. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has declined slightly, driven primarily by Shell's production units entering maintenance. Meanwhile, weekly cargo arrivals have declined. These two factors together are expected to slow the pace of port inventory accumulation.

Cost side: Raw material prices dominated profit differentiation

Weaker crude oil prices had directly narrowed the losses of integrated naphtha-based ethylene glycol production. However, due to its cost structure, syngas-based ethylene glycol production remained under significant pressure, leading to diverging profitability compared to integrated naphtha-based production.

There is a high probability that ethylene glycol prices will weaken first and then strengthen in October

Overall ethylene glycol port inventories remained relatively low, and as of October 20, spot supply pressure was low. The recent price decline was primarily due to strong domestic supply expectations, high overseas imports arriving at ports, a lack of appetite for downstream stockpiling, strong inventory data, and market trading ahead of weak fundamental expectations. As of October 20, prices had fallen significantly, and the tense SunSirs trade situation has provided some positive support to the market, providing a temporary boost to prices. Ethylene glycol is expected to bottom out and rebound, and there is a high probability that ethylene glycol prices will weaken first and then strengthen in October.

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