Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic light rare earth market price has been rising recently. On January 26th, the SunSirs Rare Earth Index was 595 points, an increase of 13 points from the previous day, a decrease of 40.91% from the highest point of 1,007 points (2022-02-24) within the cycle, and an increase of 119.56% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Market analysis

Domestic prices for neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium alloy, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide all showed an upward trend. As of the 26th, the price of neodymium oxide was 722,500 RMB/ton, a 2.21% increase in 5 days; the price of neodymium metal was 852,500 RMB/ton, a 2.40% increase in 5 days; the price of praseodymium oxide was 695,000 RMB/ton, a 2.96% increase in 5 days; the price of praseodymium metal was 875,000 RMB/ton, a 3.86% increase; the price of praseodymium-neodymium alloy was 840,000 RMB/ton, a 1.82% increase; and the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 695,000 RMB/ton, a 1.83% increase.

Recently, domestic light rare earth prices have risen, and there was strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth market regarding raw materials. Macroeconomic news suggests a tightening supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium products, further fueling market expectations of price increases. Under the combined influence of insufficient supply and bullish sentiment, spot prices for praseodymium and neodymium have risen significantly. The booming development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has led to increased orders for downstream magnetic material manufacturers, but the demand from these magnetic material companies is insufficient to support such high metal prices, resulting in weak actual transaction performance.

After years of restructuring, China's rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large corporations and characterized by relatively concentrated raw material sources.  With the continuous development of the rare earth industry abroad, China's share of global rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought some positive effects to the domestic rare earth market.

Market outlook

Recently, magnetic material companies have shown weak ordering and purchasing sentiment. The supply and demand dynamics in the light rare earth market continued to be volatile, with an imbalance in the supply and demand of praseodymium-neodymium series products, leading to continuously rising prices in the praseodymium-neodymium market. Furthermore, in the long term, the trend of sustained growth in end-user demand from industrial robots, new energy vehicles, and wind turbines remains unchanged, and the penetration rate of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets in these end-use applications is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream players, the light rare earth market is expected to maintain a high level of volatility.

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