Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs: During this period, the domestic market for 1# antimony ingots experienced an initial decline followed by a rise, resulting in price fluctuations within a range. The average price on January 1st was 162,000 RMB/ton, and the average price on January 15th was 161,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. Antimony prices underwent slight adjustments within this range, with strong market reluctance to sell. Coupled with the boom in the broader metal market and changes in export policies, the industry's expectations for the post-holiday market have risen. The market is currently in a consolidation and preparation phase.

Macroeconomic factors: Metals generally rose in price, influenced by policy

Recently, prices of base metals and strategic metals in the domestic commodity market have generally risen, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Antimony, as an important strategic mineral, has also attracted investor attention, leading to increased expectations of price increases. The support from ample liquidity and positive market sentiment has further reinforced the reluctance of holders to sell, becoming a key factor supporting the volatile price trend of antimony during this period.

Regarding policy, on January 6th, my country issued an announcement prohibiting the export of military and dual-use items to Japan. Antimony, as a strategic mineral, was included in the control list, explicitly prohibiting the export of related items to Japan for specific uses. While the announcement emphasizes that civilian trade will not be affected, the actual implementation of end-use verification may have a potential impact on antimony exports to Japan. The effects of this policy on domestic antimony export volume and prices have not yet become apparent, and further observation of policy implementation details and market response is needed.

Supply side: Refineries have low willingness to ship products, and replenishing raw materials is difficult.

During this period, holders generally have a positive outlook on the market after the Lunar New Year, resulting in a low overall willingness to sell. They are mostly controlling their sales pace to reduce the circulation of spot goods. At the same time, it remains difficult to replenish high-quality, low-priced antimony concentrate. Northern mines are facing limited production due to weather conditions, making low-priced concentrate scarce. This tight supply of raw materials further supports smelters' inclination to maintain high prices. In this situation, some holders and traders are taking advantage of the situation by hoarding goods, or even actively stockpiling, reducing the supply of spot goods and waiting for the market to pick up after the Lunar New Year, further exacerbating the tight supply situation in the spot market.

Demand side: Traditional segments remain relatively stable, while high-end segments are accelerating.

In the traditional downstream applications of antimony, flame retardant materials account for approximately 55%, and glass accounts for approximately 15%. Antimony is an essential and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of my country's photovoltaic industry, the main increase in antimony demand in the future will come from the photovoltaic sector.

Antimony oxide: As a core processed product in the antimony industry chain, antimony oxide, primarily in the form of antimony trioxide, is mainly used in flame retardants, and also extends to applications in photovoltaic glass and electronic materials.  Its market trend is strongly correlated with that of antimony ingots. Recently, the market price of antimony oxide has remained relatively stable, with average export performance and overall weak market sentiment, driven mainly by essential demand.

Photovoltaics: Short-term demand under pressure. Sodium antimonate is a key clarifying agent for photovoltaic glass, supporting the production of double-glass modules. Currently, photovoltaics account for approximately 27% of antimony consumption, making it the second largest consumer of antimony. Recently, demand for photovoltaic glass has contracted due to declining production schedules and high inventory levels in the module sector, indirectly suppressing short-term demand for antimony ingots. However, in the long term, the penetration rate of double-glass modules is expected to continue to increase, leading to steady growth in antimony demand in the photovoltaic sector and providing solid long-term support for the antimony market.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, the domestic antimony market has entered a pre-holiday consolidation phase. The overall trading atmosphere will gradually become quieter before the Spring Festival. Refineries and holders are maintaining prices and reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers are mainly making purchases based on immediate needs. Neither buyers nor sellers have a strong intention to adjust prices significantly. Therefore, the price of antimony ingots is expected to remain within the current range with only minor fluctuations, and a significant increase or decrease is unlikely.

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