Recently, international oil prices have continued to rise. However, the cost support brought by higher oil prices has not been uniformly passed on to all downstream products. Prices for downstream products like benzene and styrene have diverged, with the dynamics of the benzene-styrene spread becoming a focal point of market attention.
The current strength in benzene stems from multiple overlapping drivers. Since mid-December last year, the benzene-styrene spread has risen steadily, climbing from 1,200 RMB/ton to 1,715 RMB/ton as of January 13. After arbitrage funds booked profits, benzene prices outperformed styrene. Second, crude oil price increases directly impacted benzene, with premium levels closely tied to Middle East geopolitics. Third, two styrene plants are set to resume operations soon. As a core downstream product of benzene, the recovery in their capacity utilization will boost benzene demand, forming demand-side support expectations.
However, the fundamentally weak market structure for benzene remains unchanged. Stable supply coupled with sluggish demand has led to continuously accumulating port inventories that have surpassed historical highs, creating an invisible pressure constraining sustained price increases.
Unlike benzene, styrene boasts more robust fundamentals, which is the core reason behind the widening benzene-styrene spread.
Recent positive factors for styrene have materialized: export orders have been secured, multiple supply-side plants remain under maintenance, and inventories continue to decline. However, while fundamentals improve, styrene's downstream industries (ABS, PS, EPS) may experience negative demand feedback due to high prices, leading to reduced purchasing willingness.
Geopolitical risks remain a key factor driving short-term price movements in crude oil-derived products. Traders should closely monitor changes in the benzene-styrene spread, the completion of plant maintenance, and the recovery of end-user demand. While seizing trading opportunities, they should remain vigilant against the risk of corrections stemming from weakening fundamentals.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 16th, the benchmark price of benzene according to SunSirs was 5476.67RMB/ton, an increase of 3.95% compared to the beginning of the month (5268.67 RMB/ton).
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