According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 12th to 16th, MTBE prices rose from 4,750 RMB/ton to 4,796 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.98% during the period, a month on month decrease of 3.10%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.35%. After the early reduction of MTBE, manufacturers' shipments began to improve, coupled with the continued rise in international crude oil closing prices and improved demand for gasoline terminals. Manufacturers actively pushed up their offers, and the focus of transactions in the domestic MTBE market steadily shifted upward.
In terms of cost and crude oil: the international oil price has risen significantly, and the main positive factors are: the situation in Iran, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical risks are rising, short-term supply concerns remain in the market, and the unstable geopolitical situation gives oil price support. As of January 15th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the March contract was $63.76 per barrel.
On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline, the rebound in international crude oil futures has boosted the oil market, and the refined oil market has rebounded and stopped falling. Downstream businesses have increased their purchasing operations in response to the rising sentiment, which has given various refineries the motivation to adjust prices accordingly. The market buying and selling atmosphere is still acceptable. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: Dongfang Hongye's equipment has a construction plan and is expected to increase resource supply. MTBE supply is affected by favorable pore factors.
As of the close on January 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.1 per ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $633.12-635.12 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $19.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $737.49-737.99 per ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by 16.5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at 631.75-632.10 US dollars/ton (178.38-178.48 US cents/gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that raw material prices will remain high, cost pressure will still exist, and gasoline terminal demand will weaken. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation.
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