Macroeconomics

1. [US-India Trade Agreement] According to sources familiar with the matter, India and the United States are close to reaching a trade agreement that could reduce India's current export tariff from 50% to 15%-16%. India may agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil and may also allow more non-GMO U.S. corn and soybean meal into the market.

2. [Japan Imports and Exports] Japan's Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that exports grew 4.2% year-on-year in September, with mineral fuel exports contributing. Exports to the United States fell 13.3% that month. Overall, Japan's trade deficit was 314 billion yen (US$2.1 billion). Imports grew 3.3% in September, compared to economists' expectations of a 0.6% increase.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On October 21, international crude oil futures rose slightly. The December contract for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled at $57.24 per barrel, up $0.22, or 0.4%. The December contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $61.32 per barrel, up $0.31, or 0.5%.

2. [Crude Oil] Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on October 21st showed that U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories fell last week. As of the week ending October 17th, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.98 million barrels from the previous week; gasoline inventories fell by 236,000 barrels, and distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 974,000 barrels.

3. [Crude Oil] Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall further next year, reaching $52 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

4. [Crude Oil] On October 20th, industry monitoring agency IIR reported that Nigeria's Dangote Refinery had restarted production at its 204,000 barrel-per-day gasoline unit on October 19th as planned, with current capacity utilization at 60%. The agency added that the unit will complete its planned maintenance between December 2025 and January 2026.

5. [Crude Oil] Japan's Ministry of Finance: Preliminary crude oil imports in September increased by 1.4% year-on-year; thermal coal imports in September were 8.361 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%; and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in September were 5.156 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.

6. [Coking Coal] On October 21st, the prices of coking coal from major mines in Changzhi increased. Lean clean coal A10.0, S0.4, and G30 were priced at 1,250 RMB/ton, a 60 RMB/ton increase; lean clean coal A10.5, S0.4, and G15 were priced at 1,080 RMB/ton, a 40 RMB/ton increase. All prices are ex-factory prices, including tax, in cash and effective at 4:00 PM on the 21st.

7. [Petroleum Coke] On October 21, Yatong Petrochemical quoted petroleum coke at 2,060 RMB/ton, up 70 RMB/ton from the previous trading day, with a sulfur content of 4.2. The delayed coking unit has an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons and a daily output of 850 tons.

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