Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from January 19th to 23rd (as of 3:00 PM), the domestic methanol market price at East China ports rose from 2,218 RMB/ton to around 2,283 RMB/ton. During this period, the price increased by 2.93%, a month-on-month increase of 6.16%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.18%. The port methanol market showed a volatile and consolidating trend, influenced by a combination of factors including high port methanol inventory, weak downstream demand at ports, expected reduction in imports, and fluctuations in macroeconomic sentiment.
As of the close of trading on January 23rd, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed higher. The main methanol futures contract 2605 opened at 2,251 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,303 RMB/ton, a low of 2,246 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,298 RMB/ton, an increase of 66 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, representing a 2.96% increase. Trading volume was 1,349,180 lots, open interest was 806,994 lots, and daily change in open interest was -10,177 lots.
Market analysis
From a cost perspective, weak demand for coal was putting downward pressure on coal prices, thus reducing support for methanol costs. The cost side of methanol is therefore provided negative factors for the market.
On the demand side, port demand for olefins had decreased, leading to inventory reduction, but apparent demand remained weak, directly contributing to price pressure. Most downstream products wee affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol provided bearish factors for the market.
On the supply side, maintenance work was underway at Shanxi Yaxin, Shanxi Zhongxin, and Pucheng Clean Energy plants; Wangcang Hezhong Chemical and Shenhua Xilaifeng plants had reduced production; and Xinxiang Zhongxin and Shanxi Yaxin plants had resumed operations. Overall, the amount of production lost due to maintenance and reductions was greater than the amount restored, resulting in decreased production and lower capacity utilization. The methanol supply side therefore provided positive factors for the market.
Market outlook
With ample spot supply, high inventories in the midstream and downstream sectors, and the seasonal off-season for demand, negative factors persisted. Before the holiday, companies are actively lowering prices to reduce inventory, and the market continues to decline and bottom out. According to SunSirs' methanol analyst, the domestic methanol spot market is expected to mainly experience consolidation and fluctuations.
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