Price trend
According to data from SunSirs, seamless steel tube prices remained stable last week. As of the end of the week, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless steel tube was 4,080 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63%.
Market Analysis
Last week, the price of steel billets rose slightly, with the current ex-factory price of 20# hot-rolled steel billets ranging from 3,240 to 3,350 RMB/ton. Coking coal prices saw a slight correction, but after four rounds of price reductions, the coke market initiated its first round of price increases, providing continued support for tube prices.
In the core production area of Liaocheng, environmental protection and production restriction policies remained in effect, with half of the production lines still shut down for maintenance, resulting in a significant contraction in new supply. Operating rates at tube manufacturers in other regions remained relatively stable. Some companies, influenced by improved profitability in the previous period, had shown a slightly increased willingness to release capacity, but generally continued to follow a production-to-order strategy, actively controlling production pace to avoid inventory accumulation risks. Overall supply pressure in the industry remained manageable. Cost-side support remained in place. On the demand side, outdoor construction in northern regions had completely halted due to low temperatures and severe cold weather, virtually freezing terminal demand for tubes; although temperature conditions were relatively suitable in southern regions, most engineering projects had entered the year-end completion phase, slowing down construction pace, and new procurement plans were scarce. Terminal manufacturing enterprises strictly adhered to the principle of purchasing on demand, maintaining basic production with only small quantities of essential supplies, and there was no concentrated inventory replenishment activity.
Market Outlook:
Overall, the seamless tube market lacked momentum for both upward and downward movements. Firstly, there was a floor to downward price movements; although coking coal prices had seen some correction, the coke market, after four rounds of price reductions, had begun its first round of price increases, providing continued support to tube prices. Therefore, seamless tube prices are expected to remain largely stable with a slight downward trend.
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