Latest Intelligence on Bulk Raw Materials

Macro

1. [Electricity Consumption] According to data from the National Energy Administration, in May, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 809.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. From the perspective of electricity consumption by industry, the primary industry consumed 11.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; the secondary industry consumed 541.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%; the tertiary industry consumed 155 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; and the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 101.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%.

2. [Excavator] The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in May 2025, my country's excavator production was 25,845 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.

3. [LPR] The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on June 20, 2025, the loan market benchmark rate (LPR) was: 3.0% for 1-year LPR and 3.5% for 5-year and above LPR, both unchanged from the previous month.

4. [UK interest rate] The Bank of England kept its hands off and maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, in line with market expectations.

5. [Swiss interest rate cut] The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0%, in line with market expectations.

6. [Norway interest rate cut] The Norwegian Central Bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, which was the first interest rate cut by the Norwegian Central Bank since 2020.

7. [Japan CPI] Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose 3.7% year-on-year in May, accelerating for the third consecutive month, the largest increase since January 2023, and higher than the market expectation of 3.6%.

Energy

1. [Crude oil] On June 19, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US$73.80 per barrel, an increase of US$0.3 or 0.4%. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was US$78.85 per barrel, an increase of US$2.15 or 2.8%. The conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, and the uncertainty of US intervention pushes up the risk premium of crude oil.

2. [Crude oil] Citi: If Iran's supply of 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day is interrupted, based on the export level in May, oil prices are expected to rise by about 15% to 20%, while the average price for one month before June 12 is US$65 per barrel.

3. [Crude oil] JPMorgan Chase: In the extreme case of a larger regional conflict, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices may soar to US$120 to US$130 per barrel.

4. [Crude oil] Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said on Thursday that if ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, India is preparing to purchase crude oil from outside the Persian Gulf and cut its own refined oil exports.

5. [Coal] According to the latest data from Australia's Gladstone Port Company, Gladstone Port exported 5.0123 million tons of coal in May 2025, a month-on-month increase of 14.01% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.86%.

6. [Fuel oil] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's fuel oil production in May 2025 was 3.47 million tons, an increase of 8% year-on-year. The cumulative production of fuel oil from January to May was 17.889 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.

7. [Petroleum coke] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's petroleum coke production in May 2025 was 2.469 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. The cumulative production of petroleum coke from January to May was 13.124 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.

8. [Petroleum coke] On June 19, the price of sponge coke of Shangneng Petrochemical was 1,430 RMB/ton, an increase of 10 RMB/ton from the previous trading day, with sulfur content of about 4.2 and a daily output of 600 tons of petroleum coke.

Chemicals

1. [Lysine] The U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement to initiate an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation on lysine (L-lysine) imported from China.

2. [Lithium battery] On June 18, the Zhongxinhang high-performance lithium battery project started in Changzhou. The project has a planned design capacity of 25GWh and is expected to be put into production within 2026.

3. [Lithium carbonate] Recently, the annual production of 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate project of Jiangxi Xiangnan New Energy Co., Ltd. landed in Dayu County, Ganzhou City.

4. [Maleic anhydride] On June 19, three large key core equipment of the Sinopec Qingyang Tongxin Light Hydrocarbon Deep Processing Project, undertaken by China Chemical Equipment Technology Co., Ltd., the 150,000 tons/year maleic anhydride unit reactor, were successfully hoisted.

5. [Ethylene glycol] The load of a 900,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in Northeast China, which was restarted last weekend, has gradually increased. Recently, the company's two units with a total of 1.8 million tons/year have resumed normal operation.

A 440,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit in Canada has recently been restarted; another 460,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit that was shut down for maintenance at the end of May will be restarted this weekend.

Iran has an ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol production capacity of 1.97 million tons. Currently, several units have been shut down one after another, and the dynamics of the later units will continue to follow up.

6. [Soda ash] On June 19, the overall capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week was 86.57%, an increase of 1.68% month-on-month; the output of soda ash was 754,700 tons, an increase of 1.97%.

7. [Soda ash] On June 19, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises this week was 714,300 tons, an increase of 4.92% month-on-month, and the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%.

8. [Soda ash] On June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from Monday, an increase of 1.01%; among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 812,600 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 914,100 tons.

9. [Caustic soda] As of June 19, 2025, the national sample enterprises with a fixed liquid alkali capacity of 200,000 tons or more had a factory inventory of 366,500 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 9.57% month-on-month and 5.63% year-on-year.

10. [Methanol] As of June 18, 2025, the total inventory of methanol in China's ports was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons; the inventory in South China decreased by 34,800 tons.

11. [Potassium chloride] The port potassium chloride inventory in the second week of June 2025 was about 1.901 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the first week of June and a decrease of 444,000 tons from the same period last year (excluding bonded).

12. [Aniline] On June 20, the latest price of Dongying Huatai Aniline increased by 100 RMB/ton, and the spot price was 7,800 RMB/ton. The 100,000-ton unit was operating normally.

13. [Butadiene] The bidding situation of some domestic butadiene companies on June 19: Fushun Petrochemical had no exports and suspended quotations; Dongming Petrochemical exported 336 tons at a base price of 9,300 RMB/ton; Satellite Chemical exported a small amount, increased by 100 RMB/ton, and implemented 9,400 RMB/ton.

Rubber and plastic

1. [PE] On June 19, the dynamics of Haiguo Longyou PE unit, the 400,000-ton full-density unit was shut down for maintenance.

2. [PP] As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 607,600 tons, up 26,300 tons from the previous period, up 4.52% from the previous month.

3. [HDPE] On June 19, Shandong Wanhua Chemical, LLDPE 7042 in East China was quoted at 7,650 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton; LLDPE 7042 in South China was quoted at 7,800 RMB/ton, up 100 RMB/ton. HDPE 23050 in East China was quoted at 7,850 RMB/ton, and the quotation was temporarily stable. LDPE 2420H in South China (quotation including pallet) was quoted at 9,915 RMB/ton, up 300 RMB/ton.

4. [Styrene-butadiene rubber] On June 19, the price of styrene-butadiene rubber of PetroChina Southwest Sales Company was raised by 200 RMB/ton: the current price of Lanhua 1500E and 1502E warehouses was raised by 12,300 RMB/ton.

5. [Butadiene rubber] On June 19, the price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec Southwest Sales Company was raised by 200 RMB/ton, and the price of Dushanzi/Sichuan Butadiene was reported at 12,000 RMB/ton, and the price of Southwest warehouse was raised.

Textile

1. [Acrylonitrile] On June 20, it was reported that the 400,000-ton acrylonitrile unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical was successfully put into production.

2. [Acrylonitrile] According to statistics, as of June 19, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.16%, a decrease of 3.43% from the same period last week, and the weekly output was about 72,600 tons.

3. [Polyester yarn] According to statistics, as of June 19, the average operating rate of domestic pure polyester yarn enterprises was 76.35%, which was flat month-on-month; the inventory of the pure polyester yarn industry was 21.29 days, a decrease of 1.09 days from last week.

4. [Cotton yarn] According to statistics, as of June 19, the average operating rate of domestic cotton yarn enterprises was 68.60%, which was flat month-on-month; the finished product inventory of pure cotton yarn enterprises was 31.48 days, up 1.15% month-on-month.

5. [Polyester POY] On June 19, Zhejiang Kaishi Polyester Filament quoted 50-100, semi-gloss POY: 75/36 reported 7700, 100/36 reported 7650, 150/48 reported 7550, 200/96 reported 7550, 300/96 reported 7500.

6. [Lint cotton] According to customs data, my country imported 40,000 tons of cotton in May 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 220,000 tons, a decrease of 86.3%. From January to May, the cumulative cotton imports were 440,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.21 million tons, a decrease of 73.5%.

Steel

1. [Steel] Canadian Prime Minister Carney: Canada will adjust the existing counter-tariffs on US steel and aluminum products on July 21.

2. [Galvanized sheet] On June 19, statistics showed that 154 national galvanized enterprises had a total transaction volume of 15,966 tons, an increase of 478 tons from the previous trading day, an increase of 3.09%. The region with the largest increase was the southwest region, which increased by 454 tons from the previous trading day, an increase of 16.42%.

3. [Manganese silicon] Panjin Forging will bid on June 19: 300 tons of silicon manganese, registration deadline: 2025-06-21 09:00, quotation deadline: 2025-06-21 16:00, required delivery date: 2025-07-31.

4. [Manganese silicon] Hesteel Group's silicon manganese price in June was 5,650 RMB/ton, the first round of inquiries was 5,500 RMB/ton, and the price of silicon manganese in May was 5,850 RMB/ton. (The price in June 2024 is 8,420 RMB/ton).

5. [Rebar] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's steel bar production in May 2025 was 16.884 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the cumulative production from January to May was 82.283 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%.

6. [Wire rod] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's wire rod (wire rod) production in May was 12.016 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; the cumulative production from January to May was 56.193 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%.

7. [Iron Ore] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, China's iron ore output was 85.787 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; the cumulative output from January to May was 414.32 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.

8. [Medium-thick and wide steel strip] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, China's medium-thick and wide steel strip output was 18.866 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; the cumulative output from January to May was 94.694 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%.

Nonferrous

1. [Copper] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of refined copper (electrolytic copper) in May was 1.254 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%; the cumulative output from January to May was 6.053 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%.

2. [Copper] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's copper output in May 2025 was 2.096 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; the cumulative output from January to May was 9.537 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.

3. [Lead and zinc] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's lead production in May was 649,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, China's lead production was 3.216 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; China's zinc production was 2.919 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3%.

4. [Aluminum] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum production from January to May 2025 was 18.59 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.0%. Among them, the electrolytic aluminum production in May was 3.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%.

5. [Aluminum alloy] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's aluminum alloy production in May 2025 was 1.645 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; the cumulative aluminum alloy production from January to May was 7.405 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%.

6. [Alumina] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's cumulative alumina production from January to May 2025 was 37.401 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, the output of alumina in May was 7.488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.

7. [Alumina] According to customs data, China's cumulative alumina exports from January to May 2025 were 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 79.3%; among them, China's alumina exports in May were 210,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 104.6%.

8. [Aluminum] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's cumulative aluminum production from January to May 2025 was 26.831 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. Among them, the output of aluminum in May was 5.762 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.

9. [Aluminum] According to customs data, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products from January to May 2025 were 1.67 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; exports were 2.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%. In May, China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 350,000 tons, up 14.7% year-on-year; exports were 550,000 tons, down 3.1% year-on-year.

10. [Aluminum Ore] According to customs data, China's cumulative imports of aluminum ore and concentrates from January to May 2025 were 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year; among them, China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May were 17.51 ​​million tons, up 29.4% year-on-year.

11. [Aluminum] The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) shows that from January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production was 24.2523 million tons, consumption was 23.2412 million tons, and oversupply was 1.0111 million tons. Among them, in April 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6.0912 million tons, consumption was 5.8649 million tons, and oversupply was 226,300 tons.

12. [Copper] Brazilian mining giant Vale announced that its Bacaba copper mine project in Pará state has obtained preliminary environmental approval. The project is expected to invest US$290 million and be put into production in the first half of 2028, with an average annual copper production of 50,000 tons, which can extend the service life of the adjacent Sossego mine by 8 years.

Building materials

1. [Pulp] As of June 19, 2025, the sample inventory of pulp in China's mainstream ports was 2.208 million tons, an increase of 1.1% from the previous period of 23,000 tons. The inventory showed a narrow accumulation trend in this cycle.

2. [Waste paper] On June 19, Nine Dragons Paper in Quanzhou, Fujian, reduced the purchase price of waste paper by 20 RMB/ton, and the adjusted factory price was 1,520 RMB/ton.

Agricultural and sideline products

1. [Sugar] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, my country's finished sugar production in May 2025 was 377,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.1%; the cumulative finished sugar production from January to May was 9.066 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.

2. [Live pigs] According to customs data, China imported 90,000 tons of pork in May 2025, an increase of 11.7% over the same period last year; China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork from January to May 2025, an increase of 5.2% over the cumulative imports from January to May last year.

3. [Corn] According to customs data, China imported 190,000 tons of corn and corn flour in May 2025, a decrease of 81.6% from the same period last year; China imported a total of 630,000 tons of corn and corn flour from January to May 2025, a decrease of 93.7% over the cumulative imports from the same period last year.

4. [Soybean oil] According to customs data, China imported 10,000 tons of soybean oil in May 2025, a decrease of 86.6% from the same period last year; China imported 30,000 tons of soybean oil from January to May 2025, a decrease of 75.8% from the cumulative import volume in the same period last year.

5. [Rapeseed oil] According to customs data, China imported 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in May 2025, a decrease of 20.3% from the same period last year; China imported 1.03 million tons of rapeseed oil and mustard oil from January to May 2025, an increase of 26% from the cumulative import volume in the same period last year.

6. [Palm oil] The U.S. Department of Agriculture's June global production report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in 2024/25 is expected to be 19.4 million tons, 4% higher than the expected value last month, but 2% lower than 2023/24.

7. [Sugar] Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams on Thursday showed that the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 2.8539 million tons, compared with 2.9104 million tons the previous week.

8. [Soybeans] ANEC said that Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 will be 14.37 million tons, higher than the 14.08 million tons estimated a week ago. If the forecast is confirmed, soybean exports in June will be 3.9% higher than the 13.83 million tons in the same period of 2024.

9. [Corn] ANEC predicts that Brazil's corn exports in June 2025 will be 913,316 tons, lower than the 923,400 tons estimated a week ago, and 7.1% lower than the 982,812 tons exported in June last year.

10. [Grains] According to the website of the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine, as of June 18, Ukraine has exported 39.859 million tons of grain and legumes in the 2024/2025 fiscal year, a decrease of 9.681 million tons, or 24.2%, compared with the same period last year.

11. [Rapeseed] The French Ministry of Agriculture released a report on Tuesday saying that France's winter barley and rapeseed production will increase in 2025. The report pointed out that the winter rapeseed harvest in 2025 is expected to reach 4.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, as yield expectations improve.

12. [Rapeseed] The German Agricultural Cooperative Association of Raiffeisen (DRV) released its fourth production forecast report on Wednesday, raising the expected value of German grain production in 2025. The report shows that Germany's winter rapeseed production in 2025 is estimated to be 3.92 million tons, higher than the 3.82 million tons forecast in May, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, and a year-on-year increase of 5.6% forecast last month.

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