SunSirs: The Overall Price of China Thermal Coal Fell in November

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal fell overall last month. On November 29, the energy index was 1,114 points, down 5 points from the previous day, down 28.64% from 1,561 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 118.00% from 511 points, the lowest point on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The overall price of thermal coal in last month is weak. In terms of production area, affected by epidemic situation and safety reduction, coal mines are mainly responsible for long-term coal supply. In addition, the overall coal price fell by 50-100 RMB/ ton, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was average. Due to the influence of public health time, it is difficult to ship coal, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. In terms of downstream ports, traders' quotations are weak, and they mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the shipment volume of Daqin Line is still limited due to maintenance. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. The daily consumption of the power plant is stable and the safety stock is maintained.

The National Bureau of Statistics announced on November 27 that from January to October 2022, industrial enterprises above designated size will achieve an operating revenue of 111.78 trillion RMB, up 7.6% year on year. The business income of mining owners was 5,589.51 billion RMB, up 22.5% year on year, and the growth rate continued to narrow. Among them, the main business income of the coal mining and washing industry was 332.036 billion RMB, up 28.8% year on year, 9.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; The oil and gas exploitation industry was 1,048.21 billion RMB, up 42.5% year on year; The ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 411.62 billion RMB, down 19.1% year on year; The nonferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 284.61 billion RMB, up 15.9% year on year; The non-metallic mining and dressing industry was 350.04 billion RMB, up 4.1% year on year; Other mining industries were 1.6 billion RMB, up 56.9% year on year.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the overall price of thermal coal fell in November, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. At present, the coal mine is still mainly guaranteed to supply coal for a long time. There are few marketable resources in the market, and the quotation of traders declines. However, with the sudden drop in temperature, the power plant still has a demand for coal replenishment. It is estimated that China thermal coal market will be dominated by the stronger operation in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

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