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SunSirs: The Price of Wood Pulp Falls First and then Rises, and it is Stable in the Short Term and Strong in the Medium Term

November 28 2022 13:49:25     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the data monitored by SunSirs, the spot prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp last week showed a mixed trend. As of November 25, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 7,356 RMB/ ton, up 0.16% compared with the average price of 7,344 RMB/ ton on November 20. On November 25, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 6,590 RMB/ ton, down 0.3% compared with the average price of 6,610 RMB/ ton on November 20.

By observing market changes, spot prices of softwood and hardwood pulp fell first and then rose last week, while pulp futures prices showed an upward trend. On the supply side, the price of wood pulp remained low due to the gradual recovery of shipping volume in the international mainstream regions in the early stage, which eased the tension in the pulp spot market. Subsequently, the recent American Railway Association strike crisis was on the verge of breaking out, and the Chilean port strike event was restarted again. The market was again worried about the pulp supply, and the spot price of wood pulp rose again near the weekend.

On the macro level, the news that the Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase in December might continue to slow down, and the plan for the regular government to reduce the reserve ratio, improved the overall sentiment of the market and boosted the pulp price.

On the demand side, the current downstream paper enterprises are not enthusiastic about starting work, and their demand for pulp is relatively weak, so they maintain a rigid demand for procurement. Downstream paper enterprises continue to focus on digesting inventory, and the cost pressure has not been significantly relieved temporarily, and the acceptance of high priced wood pulp is limited.

In terms of futures, on November 25, the opening price of the pulp futures SP2301 contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,150 RMB/ ton, the latest price was 7,100 RMB/ ton, 186,900 hands were traded, and 200,113 hands were held.

SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that although the domestic downstream demand is weak at present, the current wood pulp price is still boosted due to the influence of the supply side and macro information. The overlapped pulp futures 2301 contract is close to the delivery month, and is in the delivery logic in the short term. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp may be stable and strong in China.

 

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