SunSirs: Dominated by Negative Factors, China Rapeseed Meal is Weak

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 4,084 RMB/ ton on November 10 and 3,980 RMB/ ton on November 17, with a decline of 2.55% during the period, 6.09% lower than that on October 1.

From November 10 to November 17, the spot price of rapeseed meal decreased continuously. In terms of supply, from November to December, a large number of domestic imported rapeseed meal arrived in Hong Kong, and the domestic rapeseed inventory in coastal areas rebounded. The tight supply pattern of rapeseed meal will be eased. According to statistics, as of November 11, the rapeseed inventory of oil plants in coastal areas was 265,000 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal in South China was 36,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons on a weekly basis. In terms of demand, the weather is cooling, the feeding of aquaculture is weakening, the rapeseed meal ushers in the traditional off-season, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the negative market is weakening.

On the external side: Vancouver, November 16, news: On Wednesday, the Canadian canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark period closing 1.4% lower. By the end of the day, January was down about $12.20 to close at $882.40/ton; The March delivery ended down about $12.70 to close at $871.90/ton; The May delivery was down about $12 to close at $873.10/ton.

In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,660 RMB/ ton on November 10 and 5,268 RMB/ ton on November 17, with a decline of 6.93%. It was 2.73% higher than that on October 1. The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is large, and the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal is obvious, boosting the market of rapeseed meal.

In terms of supply, due to the small quantity of imported rapeseed in the early stage, the domestic rapeseed inventory was at a low level, supporting the price of rapeseed. Canada's rapeseed production increased in the new season. Recently, the rapeseed export speed has significantly accelerated, and the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to ease. In terms of demand, in winter, aquaculture is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weakened. SunSirs's rapeseed meal analysis predicts that rapeseed meal will tend to be volatile and weak in China, and it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes in soybean meal market.

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