SunSirs: The Demand Was Less Than Expected, and the Cobalt Price Rose First and Then Fell in October

The domestic cobalt price rose first and then fell in October

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 31, the average domestic cobalt price was 346,700 RMB/ton, up 0.12% from the price of 346,300 RMB/ton on October 1. In October, the cobalt price rose first and then fell. After the festival, enterprises replenished the stock. The demand for cobalt recovered briefly, and the cobalt price rose slightly. After the replenishment, the demand in the cobalt market was less than expected, and the domestic cobalt price fell rapidly. As the cobalt salt price entered the falling range, the downward trend of cobalt price further increased.

Analysis review

New energy vehicle market

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 755,000 and 708,000, up 1.1 times and 93.9% year on year, respectively, with a market share of 27.1%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 4.717 million and 4.567 million, up 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively year on year, with a market share of 23.5%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy enterprises increased significantly. 50,000 new energy vehicles were exported, down 40.3% month on month. Although the consumption of new energy vehicles has maintained a high growth rate, the export volume has declined, and affected by the frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemics, the sales of new energy vehicles in October were less than expected, the production and sales of vehicles in the fourth quarter may be difficult to maintain a rapid growth, the growth of new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the demand growth for cobalt market is limited.

Import volume of cobalt raw materials

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in September 2022, China's cobalt raw material imports totaled 10,600 tons of metal tons, up 36% year on year and down 3% month on month. From January to September 2022, China's cobalt raw material imports totaled 77,300 tons of metal tons. In September, the import of cobalt raw materials decreased slightly on a month on month basis, but the import increased throughout the year, and the supply of cobalt was relatively sufficient.

Trend of MB cobalt price in October

It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price in October failed to continue the rise in September. Although the MB alloy cobalt price rose briefly, it fell rapidly. The standard cobalt price continued to fall in October. As of October 31, the average price of standard grade cobalt was 25 US dollars/pound, down 1.1 US dollars/pound from 26.1 US dollars/pound at the beginning of the month; The international cobalt market fell, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the rising support for the cobalt market was weakened.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ data analysts believe that after the National Day, the stock was replenished and cobalt prices rose briefly; However, the cobalt market demand in October was less than expected, and the cobalt price fell rapidly. The supply of cobalt market is sufficient, and the demand is less than expected. In addition, the international cobalt price falls, and the future cobalt price is expected to fall slightly in shock.

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