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SunSirs: Weak Fundamentals, Ammonium Chloride Market Fell Slightly in October

November 01 2022 14:14:45     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

In October, the fundamentals of ammonium chloride market continued to be weak, and the price of ammonium chloride fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1,012 RMB/ton at the beginning of October, and 980 RMB/ton at the end of the month, down 3.21%. In October, the ex factory price of ammonium chloride enterprises was basically stable, and the offer of merchants to increase shipment decreased slightly. By the end of October, the factory price of ammonium chloride dry ammonium was around 900~970 RMB/ton, and the market mainstream price was around 950~1,000 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Supply and demand: On the one hand, the operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer in October continued at a low level of 30-40%, and the winter storage had not yet started, so the demand for ammonium chloride continued to be weak. On the other hand, the domestic soda production rate was around 80%, and the supply of ammonium chloride was sufficient; Ammonium chloride was mainly weak under the pressure of oversupply.

In October, the price of raw material liquid ammonia fell sharply, and the cost support was weak. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4,113 RMB/ton, 5.95% lower than the price of 4,373 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The amount of ammonia released in the main production area had only increased. Since the middle of October, Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian and other places had large shipments, and with the effect of manufacturers' successive price reductions, the shipment had become more powerful. Moreover, due to the continuous weak fluctuation of urea price, many enterprises had switched to liquid ammonia production recently. The ammonia volume in the second half of the month remained high, and the price was suppressed by loose supply.

Market outlook

Ammonium chloride analysts from SunSirs believe that in October, when the supply and demand side was weak, ammonium chloride slightly declined. In addition, the price of liquid ammonia declined, and the cost support of ammonium chloride weakened. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride will continue to be weak in the later period.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.

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