SunSirs: Cost Supports the Price Rise of Eggs in China in October

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of eggs was 10.85 RMB/kg at the beginning of this month, and 12.43 RMB/kg at the end of this month, with a rise of 14.56% and 18.49% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of egg supply in October, affected mainly by the rise in feed prices, the enthusiasm of some farmers for Taoji has increased, and the number of eliminated chickens is higher than the number of newly opened laying hens. In October, the number of laying hens in the country is expected to decline by 1.4% month on month. The number of laying hens in the country will decrease steadily, and the supply of eggs in the market will be tightened steadily. In terms of demand, with the weakening of the National Day holiday effect, the procurement of eggs in the terminal consumption segment has declined slowly, and the number of products sold in supermarkets, farmers' markets and wholesale markets has decreased. Egg consumption has fallen back seasonally.

From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the newly increased egg production capacity mainly corresponds to the inventory supplement 4 months ago, and the eliminated egg production corresponds to the inventory supplement 16 months ago. The number of laying hens newly opened in the fourth quarter corresponds to the number of chick seedlings supplemented in June August this year. However, affected by the egg price at that time, the enthusiasm of farmers to supplement is poor. From June to August, the sales of chick seedlings decreased by 11.86% month on month, so the number of new laying hens in the fourth quarter may decrease. In terms of eliminating chickens, the elimination of chickens corresponds to the replacement of old chickens from April to July 2021. As the breeding cost continues to be high, the phenomenon of delayed scouring is obvious.

The number of eliminated chickens is higher than the number of newly opened laying hens. The number of laying hens on hand is steadily decreasing. The consumption of eggs will fall seasonally. It is expected that the price of eggs will fluctuate weakly in China in the later period.

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