SunSirs: Under the Macro Fundamental Game, Nickel Price Fluctuated Widely in October

Price trend

According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, the nickel price fluctuated frequently in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 19116.67 RMB/ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 188450 RMB/ton, with an overall decline of 1.42%, up 29.68% year on year.

Analysis review

Macro: In October, the European Central Bank raised three major interest rates by 75 basis points. The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution as scheduled, raising interest rates by another 75 basis points. The US reported that the CPI in September was the focus of the financial market. The CPI rose 8.2% in September, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On the supply side: In October, the Philippines entered the rainy season, which may affect the freight volume, and the price of nickel ore is firm; In the third quarter, the nickel output of Danshui River increased month on month, and the spot supply of domestic Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel eased slightly; Indonesian officials once again stressed that the export tax on semi-finished nickel products would be levied this year.

Demand: In the downstream, the demand for nickel has improved due to the frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain, and the overall trend of the power battery industry chain for sulfuric acid stainless steel has warmed up. The profit of stainless steel improved, which drove the steel plant to maintain a high production schedule. The output in October was about 2.89 million tons, and the output is expected to stabilize in November.

Market outlook

To sum up: in October, nickel supply was tight, and the nickel industry chain on the demand side was still in the peak season of ‘gold September and silver October’. The rapid development of new energy industry has driven the demand for nickel sulfate, and the demand for nickel in stainless steel has improved. The final result of LME's sanctions on Russian metals may be announced in the near future, which may cause sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous market. According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of SunSirs in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October, but November is the low season for consumption, and the demand may weaken. It is expected that the nickel price will still maintain a wide range of fluctuations in November.

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