SunSirs: The Pattern of "Strong Diesel and Weak Gasoline" of China Local Refining Continued in October

The trend of domestic gasoline and diesel is divided, and the pattern of local steam refining weak and diesel strong continues. As of October 26, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,322 RMB/ ton, down 4.27% in October; The domestic price of 0# diesel oil was 8,942.4 RMB/ ton, and the price rose 2.02% in October, mainly due to the demand. The demand for diesel oil was good, while the demand for gasoline was poor.

Supply and demand: After October, the operating rate of Shandong Refinery fell back, the supply resources decreased accordingly, and the impact of local refined oil products on the surrounding markets weakened. In the near future, the average operating load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in Shandong's main refineries is about 61%, the manufacturer's inventory is maintained, the supply of refined oil resources is reduced slightly, the operators' intention to enter the market is reduced, and the market buying and selling atmosphere is light. In October, the epidemic occurred occasionally in some areas, with residents' travel reduced, gasoline demand declined, and gasoline price was weak. In terms of diesel, supported by the traditional "golden nine silver ten" peak consumption season, large industrial and mining infrastructure and other industries are actively rushing to work, and the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure and industrial and mining remains at a high level. In addition, the diesel export profits are considerable, and the export enthusiasm of domestic refineries is rising. In addition, the fifth batch of temporary quotas are issued in large quantities, and the diesel export volume is increasing. Diesel demand remained high. The main sales policy was to protect terminal gas stations and restrict or stop the sale of middlemen. The trend of diesel market rose.

In terms of cost, the international crude oil price has risen since October. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+ decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+ crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price has risen sharply. As the negative economic pressure is difficult to ease, the World Bank and the IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession is growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and the crude oil price fell back. As of the 25th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 85.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 93.52 dollars/barrel. The oil price plays a game around the factors of slowing demand and tight supply, maintaining range shocks. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data showed that the US crude oil inventory surged last week, with crude oil inventory increasing by about 4.5 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreasing by about 2.3 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory increasing by about 600,000 barrels. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, the cost support remained, and the domestic oil product market was supported to some extent.

SunSirs oil product analyst believes that the news is long and short, and international oil prices will remain volatile in the short term. In terms of domestic gasoline, the epidemic has occurred locally, travel is limited in some regions, demand for gasoline is poor, and prices are still at risk of falling. In terms of diesel, affected by the rush of construction at the end of the year, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure, factories and mines and other oil terminals remained at a high level, and the demand for diesel was still strong. With the temperature decreasing, the northern region began to replace negative resources, and the supply of diesel resources was tight, which was good for supporting the rising trend of diesel. However, the rise of diesel was limited when it was pushed to the full price.

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