SunSirs: The Price of China Refined Naphtha Rose slightly Last Week

As of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7,850.00 RMB/ ton, up 0.51% from 7,810.00 RMB/ ton on October 17. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7,800-8,000 RMB/ ton.

As of October 23, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7,612.50 RMB/ ton, up 0.46% from 7,577.50 RMB/ ton on October 17. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7,600-7,800 RMB/ ton.

On October 23, the naphtha commodity index was 96.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 20.36% from the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and up 129.36% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly last week. A small amount of refined naphtha just needs to be released on the market. Businesses mainly wait and see to push up cautiously.

Upstream: International crude oil prices fell in shock. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to reduce their production target by 2 million barrels per day during the National Day holiday, the expectation of tight crude oil supply has led to a rise in oil prices. However, the release of reserves in the United States followed. In addition, against the background of high global inflation, the market strengthened the expectation of the central bank to significantly increase interest rates. The expectation of economic recession risk weakened the demand for fuel. In the short term, it hedged the positive impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies (OPEC+) to significantly reduce production, and crude oil prices fell accordingly.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of toluene weakened this week. On October 14, the price was 7,790 RMB/ ton, and on October 21, the price was 7,690 RMB/ ton, down 1.28% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On October 14, it was 8,400 RMB/ ton, and on October 21, it was 8,260 RMB/ ton, down 1.67% from last week. In terms of PX market, the price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9,300 RMB/ ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

SunSirs energy analysts believe that the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market is limited; Last week, the gasoline and diesel market was weak as a whole, and a small amount of naphtha market just needed to be released, but businesses were mainly wait-and-see, pushing up cautiously, and it is expected that China naphtha refining in the near future will be dominated.

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