SunSirs: The Price of Refined Petroleum Coke slightly Decreased Last week in China (August15-21)

Price data

According to the data of SunSirs, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell slightly last week. On August 21, the average price of Shandong market was 4,039.00 RMB/ ton, down 1.52% from the price of 4,062.50 RMB/ ton on August 15.

On August 21, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, which was the same as the previous day, 23.13% lower than the highest point 408.70 (May 11, 2022) in the cycle, and 369.65% higher than the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

Analysis of influencing factors

Last week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery rose and fell. The shipment of the refinery slowed down, the transaction was general, and the downstream purchase was mainly based on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates. On one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data are generally weak, which once again raises the market's concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which makes the international oil price under pressure. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (JMMC) decided to increase production by 100,000 barrels/ day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648,000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC+ actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels/ day. This is also a reversal of the market's view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained stable as a whole last week; The market price of metal silicon has risen sharply; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose, and as of August 21, the price was 18,433.33 RMB/ ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude and mainly purchase on demand.

SunSirs petroleum coke analyst believes that the international crude oil shock last week limited the cost support of petroleum coke; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand, and the shipment of petroleum coke from refineries slows down. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke in China will be mainly adjusted in the near future.

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