SunSirs: Crude Oil Surged, Toluene Actively Pushed Higher (February 28-March 4)

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, toluene rose continuously this week, and the price rose broadly. On February 25, the price of toluene was 7,370.2 RMB/ton; On Friday (March 4), the price of toluene was 7,950 RMB/ton, up 7.87% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 35.32%.

Analysis review

This week, driven by the surge in international crude oil prices, toluene rose widely in Asia in the outer market, and the domestic market actively supported the price increase. Recently, the price of crude oil has continued to rise, and gasoline has also risen, and the demand for raw material toluene has increased. Some large refineries reduced the number of export sales and switched to their own use. The reduction in spot supply also boosted the price of toluene.

In the external disk, affected by the surge in crude oil, toluene rose widely in Asia this week. On Thursday (March 3), the import price of toluene in South Korea was 1,077 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 113 US dollars/ton, or 11.72%.

On the crude oil front, geopolitical tensions reigned supreme, with crude surging this week. As of March 4, Brent crude oil rose 20.18 US dollar per barrel this week, or 20.61%; WTI crude oil rose 24.09 US dollars per barrel, or 26.3%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded slightly after falling back this week. On February 25, the price was 19,350 RMB/ton, and on March 4, the price was 19,075 RMB/ton, down 1.42% from last week and up 0.91% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to rise this week. On Friday (March 4), the domestic ex-factory price of PX was 8,500 RMB/ton, up 6.25% from last week and 26.87% from the same period last year. Due to rising downstream demand, domestic PX prices trended upward. In terms of external disks, as of the 3rd, the closing prices were 1,252-1,254 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1,270-1,272 US dollars/ton CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong first rose and then fell this week. The price was 9,496.6 RMB/ton on February 25 and 9,698.6 RMB/ton on March 4, up 2.13% from last week and 44.79% from the same period last year.

Market outlook

In terms of crude oil, the geopolitical situation will continue to affect international oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC+ decision on crude oil production, the impact of U.S. crude oil, refined oil inventory dynamics, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

In the short term, toluene is mainly affected by the price trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel, while the demand for downstream chemical products is weak and the support is insufficient. On the whole, there is uncertainty in the trend of crude oil. If crude oil, gasoline and diesel fall, toluene may follow the trend. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil, gasoline and diesel prices, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics, and demand on toluene prices.

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