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SunSirs: The Overall Trend of N-butanol in 2020 Was Improving. The Market in the Fourth Quarter Was "Bright" and the Annual Increase Was 61%-Part 1

January 05 2021 13:33:13     SunSirs (John)

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, on January 1, the average price of domestic n-butanol was 5,833 RMB/ton. On June 30, the average price of domestic n-butanol was 5,950 RMB/ton. Compared with January 1st, the average price in the first half of the year increased by 117 RMB/ton, or rose by 2% in the first half of the year. On December 31, the average price of domestically produced n-butanol in the market was 9,366 RMB/ton. Compared with June 30, the average price in the second half of the year increased by 3,416 RMB/ton, an increase of 57.42% in the second half. From January 1 to December 31, the annual price of n-butanol increased by 3,533 RMB/ton, an increase of 60.57% for the year.

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the n-butanol only fell in February, March and July in 2020. The biggest drop was in March, with an overall decrease of 20.12%, and the biggest increase was in November, with an overall increase of 38.23%. The lowest price of n-butanol in the whole year was on April 4, the average price of domestic n-butanol was 4,300 RMB/ton. The highest price of n-butanol in the whole year was on December 22, the average price of domestic n-butanol was10,000 RMB/ton in the market. The annual price of n-butanol had the largest amplitude of 132.56%.

The domestic market for n-butanol was weak in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2020, the domestic n-butanol market was generally weak. According to the data from SunSirs, the overall trend of n-butanol showed a "W" from January to June, with similar prices at the beginning and end, with two lows in the middle market.

In January, the domestic n-butanol market was driven by the increase in downstream purchase demand before the Spring Festival, and the overall market trend was firm and stable. Entering February, after the Spring Festival, due to conditions such as logistics and transportation and the impact of the market environment, the market demand for n-butanol weakened, trading was weak, factory operations were low, supply and demand were weak, n-butanol fell all the way, and the decline continued until March. The market for n-butanol continued to be weak. The international crude oil suppressed the mentality of the industry. In addition, the downstream start-up load was slow and the price of raw material propylene had fallen. The wait-and-see sentiment of the industry increased. The game of supply and demand still existed. The market for n-butanol continued to fall. According to data monitoring, on March 31, the domestic reference average price of n-butanol fell to 4,366 RMB/ton. Compared with the price on January 1, the market price of n-butanol in the first quarter of 2020 had dropped by 1,467 RMB/ton, a decrease of 25.14%.

Entering April, on the first two days of the month, n-butanol continued to decline slightly. On April 4, the average market price of domestic n-butanol fell to 4,300 RMB/ton, which was the lowest price in 2020 and the first trough in the first half of the year.

After Tome Sweeping Dayl, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market increased, and downstream users of butyl esters slightly increased their enthusiasm for purchasing low-priced sources in the market. The sharp rise in the price of raw material propylene gave the industry firm confidence in price increases, and the n-butanol market rose all the way to mid-April, domestic n-butanol rose to 5,933 RMB/ton, a half-month increase of 35.88%. Then, with the impact of the decline in the propylene market, the n-butanol market fell sharply again after a sharply rise. As of April 30, the domestic n-butanol fell below 5,000 RMB/ton, and the average price was 4,966 RMB/ton, which was the second trough in the first half of the year.

After the Labor Day in May, the overall trend of the domestic n-butanol market recovered. The market conditions were improving. The downstream purchasing atmosphere was positive, the raw material support was strengthened, the supply pressure was small, the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth, and the industry was full of confidence. Throughout May, the market quotations of n-butanol rose all the way. Entering June, at the beginning of the month, due to the excessive inventory of n-butanol in some areas, some factories gave profits and the offer price of n-butanol declined, and then the increase in propylene gave support to the cost of n-butanol, and n-butanol stopped falling and rose. The factory operating rate was low, the spot was tight, the market inquiry atmosphere was good, and the price of n-butanol kept moving upward. As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average ex-factory price of domestic n-butanol was refered to 5,950 RMB/ton. Compared with April 1, the price increased by 1,600 RMB/ton, an increase of 36.26% in the second quarter. Compared with January 1, the average price in the first half of the year increased by 117 RMB/ton, or increased by 2% in the first half of the year.

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