SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Show Mixed Trends; Range-Bound Fluctuation Expected in the Short Term

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, prices for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp diverged this week, with the market overall fluctuating within a specific range. Hardwood pulp showed slight strength, supported by rising overseas offer prices, while softwood pulp retreated slightly under pressure from high price levels. As of September 11, the average market price for softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,870 RMB/ton, down 1.35% from September 6. The average market price for hardwood pulp in Shandong was 4,570 RMB/ton, up 0.29% from September 6.

Regarding supply: The recent shutdown of Domtar’s softwood pulp mill in Canada continues to impact market sentiment. Coupled with maintenance at some overseas pulp mills, the volume of global market pulp shipments to China has declined year-on-year. South America's Arauco raised its September overseas offer prices for hardwood pulp, increasing import costs and providing a price floor for spot hardwood pulp. These bullish factors support traders' willingness to maintain prices; however, high inventory levels limit the upward elasticity of softwood pulp prices. Consequently, hardwood pulp quotes remain stable to firm, while prices for high-end softwood pulp have softened. Domestic pulp mill operations remain stable, and domestic hardwood pulp production is steady, with no immediate supply shortages.

During this period, pulp inventories at major ports showed a downward trend (destocking). As of September 10, 2026, sampled pulp inventory at major Chinese ports stood at 2.263 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (down 1.3%) from the previous period. Inventory at Qingdao Port—a major domestic pulp hub—also declined, with the average daily outflow rate remaining largely unchanged from the previous period. Changshu Port similarly saw a reduction in inventory, with outbound shipments approaching 100,000 tons.

Regarding demand: September is traditionally the "Golden September" peak season for the papermaking industry; however, the realization of end-market demand has been weak, reflecting a pattern of strong expectations versus weak reality. Production in the household paper sector has remained steady, with consistent demand for hardwood pulp; however, downstream orders for cultural paper and white paperboard have seen limited improvement. Paper mills are operating with low profit margins and resisting high raw material costs, limiting procurement to immediate needs without engaging in proactive, large-scale restocking. While market inquiries have increased, actual transaction volumes remain low; mills are purchasing on an as-needed basis and are keen to drive down prices. Hardwood pulp enjoys slightly better downstream acceptance than softwood pulp due to cost support, whereas high-priced softwood pulp has seen sluggish trading and a price pullback under pressure.

Regarding futures: Pulp futures prices fluctuated upward early in the period but subsequently pulled back as funds exited to lock in profits. As of September 11, 2026, the opening and closing prices for the main pulp futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) were 4,786 RMB/tonne, with a high of 4,840 RMB/tonne; trading volume stood at 338,000 lots, and open interest was 214,900 lots.

Wood pulp analysts at SunSirs believe that softwood pulp prices are currently under pressure at high levels and fluctuating weakly. In contrast, hardwood pulp shows greater resilience—supported by overseas cost factors—and is trending slightly stronger, though its upside potential remains limited. The market is bolstered by positive factors such as scheduled maintenance at additional overseas pulp mills and concentrated downstream stockpiling; however, the continued accumulation of finished paper inventory and persistent weakness in end-user demand act as bearish headwinds. In the short term, softwood and hardwood pulp prices are expected to continue diverging; the probability of a sharp unilateral rise or fall is low, and prices will likely remain range-bound.

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