SunSirs: Stainless Steel Prices Edged Down Last Week (Aug. 31-Sept. 4)

Price trends

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, stainless steel prices have recently seen a slight decline. As of September 4, the daily average spot price for 304/2B stainless steel sheets (specifications: 1.0 x 1219 x 2438 mm; 0.91 mm tolerance) stood at 12,916.67 RMB/ton, down 1.46% from the beginning of the week but up 6.45% year-on-year.

Market analysis

According to the price spread analysis tool from SunSirs, nickel and stainless steel prices have followed similar trends, recently experiencing a slight pullback.

Raw materials: High-nickel pig iron (NPI) prices are trending weak, quoted at 1,125 RMB per nickel unit, as the market faces downward pressure from increased arrivals of Indonesian NPI and price-suppression efforts by steel mills. Mainstream quotes for high-carbon ferrochrome range from 7,850 to 7,950 RMB per 50-base-ton unit; September procurement prices from Tsingshan and TISCO were both lowered by 100 RMB month-on-month. Approvals for Indonesian RKAB revisions are being finalized, and expectations of looser supply are weighing on raw material prices.

Supply: Projected crude stainless steel production for September is 3.6473 million tonnes, down 1.98% month-on-month but up 6.44% year-on-year; 300-series production stands at 1.9647 million tonnes, showing a slight month-on-month decline. Social inventories have risen for four consecutive weeks, reaching 1.1578 million tonnes as of September 3—a weekly increase of 0.21%. SHFE warehouse stocks have decreased to 73,419 tonnes, though the absolute level remains high.

Demand: The traditional "Golden September" peak season has officially begun, yet expectations for a recovery in downstream demand have failed to materialize; purchasing is driven primarily by immediate needs, with little willingness to actively restock. Prices for the 300 series fell initially before stabilizing, with privately produced 304 cold-rolled coils in Wuxi quoted at 13,800-13,850 RMB/ton. The 200 series saw a slight decline, with lackluster trading activity. Overall, the market is experiencing a simultaneous drop in both volume and prices.

Market outlook

Last week, stainless steel futures continued their downward trend, with the main contract closing at 13,845 RMB/ton—a weekly decline of 1.18%. Demand during the "Golden September" peak season fell short of expectations, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. However, rumors of production cuts at Indonesian nickel smelters provided some support to the market. In the short term, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a bearish bias.

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