SunSirs: China Imported Spot LNG DES Price (CLD) | Weekly Analysis (August 24–28)

Last week (August 24–28), the CLD (front-month: October) closed at 147.414 CNY/GJ (23.201 USD/MMBtu), marking a week-on-week increase of 4.877 CNY/GJ (3.43%). As of August 28, the monthly average CLD (front-month: October) stood at 139.095 CNY/GJ (21.859 USD/MMBtu), up 9.918 CNY/GJ (7.68%) from the September CLD monthly average.

The price trend of the front-month CLD is driven by a combination of factors, including domestic spot procurement expectations and price fluctuations across US, European, and Asian regional markets.

In the US, despite a recent decline in LNG export volumes, Henry Hub (HH) natural gas futures prices trended upward amidst volatility. This rise was supported by a slight drop in average daily production, persistent late-summer heat, and anticipated continued growth in gas-fired power generation demand. According to Baker Hughes data, the number of active US natural gas rigs stood at 132 as of August 28—an increase of 5 rigs from the previous week and 13 from the same period last year. Vortexa data indicates that 31 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week ending August 26, carrying a total volume of approximately 117 billion cubic feet (Bcf), down 12 Bcf from the prior week. EIA data shows that weekly inventories rose by 15 Bcf for the week ending August 21; this fell short of the 19 Bcf generally forecast by market analysts and represented a level 5.54% above the five-year average. NYMEX data shows that on August 28, the HH natural gas futures price (front-month: October) was 2.888 USD/MMBtu, a week-on-week increase of 2.74%. In Europe, market risk premiums have risen due to tensions in the Middle East and increased shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. This upward pressure is compounded by European natural gas inventories remaining significantly below seasonal averages and slower-than-expected injection progress. Additionally, factors such as competition for LNG supplies between Europe and Asia, maintenance at Norwegian facilities, and rising temperatures driving up gas consumption have collectively kept spot and forward prices (for winter and spring) at high levels, causing TTF natural gas futures to fluctuate within a high range. Data from Bruegel indicates that in Week 34 of 2026, pipeline gas imports from Norway to the EU-27 totaled approximately 1.841 billion cubic meters (bcm)—a 3.66% week-on-week decrease—accounting for 33.23% of total EU gas imports. Pipeline gas imports from Russia stood at approximately 0.381 bcm (up 3.25% week-on-week), representing 6.88% of the total, while LNG imports reached approximately 2.111 bcm (up 1.10% week-on-week), accounting for 38.10% of the total. GIE data shows that as of August 30, EU natural gas storage levels stood at 64.73% of total capacity; while injection rates have risen slightly of late, current inventory levels remain down 16.48% year-on-year and 20.83% below the five-year average for this period. According to ICE data, on August 28, the price of EUA futures (front-month, September) was €82.21/tonne (up 0.16% week-on-week), and the price of TTF natural gas futures (front-month, October) was €66.979/MWh (approximately $22.855/MMBtu), up 1.48% week-on-week.

In Asia, the pace of global supply recovery remains slower than anticipated, causing gas prices in Northwest Europe to repeatedly hit new highs. Amid concerns over further price increases, some Southeast Asian nations have recently initiated tentative tender-based procurement, driving up assessed spot LNG prices in the Asian market. (Source: Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange)

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