SunSirs: Cyclohexane Market Prices Were Stable with a Downward Bias, and Upward Momentum Was Insufficient

Price trend

Data monitored by SunSirs indicates that as of August 26, the average domestic price for premium-grade industrial cyclohexane stood at 6,666 RMB/ton. Mid-week (August 24), some market information sources recorded a spike in the national average spot price to 7,600 RMB/ton (up 4.11% in a single day and 8.57% for the week); however, this was largely driven by price-propping efforts for by-product material in Shandong and statistical sampling discrepancies, as actual mainstream trading volumes did not rise in tandem. Fundamentally, the market rally was driven by rising costs rather than a shortage of supply.

Market analysis

Market Overview: Regarding plant operations, the overall operating rate for domestic cyclohexane units stands at 62-66%. Facilities such as Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, and Haili have resumed production following maintenance; meanwhile, Shanxi Lanhua's 20,000-ton/year by-product unit has remained offline since July. Nevertheless, integrated plants continue to supply significant volumes to the merchant market, and inventories across the supply chain are at moderately high levels. Supply-side dynamics indicate that price increases are driven by rising costs and price support from holders rather than a shortage of goods; factory inventories are moderately high, large orders are scarce, and traders are generally offering price concessions to move stock, limiting the potential for upward price elasticity.

Regarding costs: Driven by the US-Iran standoff and concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have rebounded, with WTI climbing back above $80/bbl and Brent exceeding $91/bbl; this has raised the floor of support for the naphtha-benzene value chain. For pure benzene, Sinopec raised its listed price three times in mid-August—a cumulative increase of 650 RMB/ton to 8,000 RMB/ton—while East China spot prices ranged from 8,180 to 8,300 RMB/ton. Commercial inventories at Jiangsu ports fell to a historic low of 29,000 tonnes (down 27.5% month-on-month and 79.86% year-on-year), with margins from fuel blending and disproportionation providing a floor for aromatics prices; hydrogenated benzene prices also strengthened in tandem, reaching 6,275 RMB/ton.

Downstream demand: Caprolactam (the largest downstream sector) sees an operating rate of approximately 68%, with liquid-grade material trading at 12,100 RMB/ton in East China; however, the operating rate for its downstream product, PA6, is only 64%. With yarn and injection molding sectors in the off-season, purchasing is limited to replenishing low inventories for essential needs, and there is little willingness to chase higher prices. Regarding adipic acid and cyclohexanone: Adipic acid plants are operating at 64%; prices rose to 8,100-8,300 RMB/ton, yet theoretical losses for producers exceed 1,000 RMB/ton. Downstream operating rates stand at around 20% for PBAT and under 50% for PA66. Cyclohexanone plants are operating at 70-75%, with prices holding steady or edging up slightly. For solvents and rubber additives: Demand is driven primarily by small orders due to the combined impact of summer environmental regulations and the off-season; overall downstream acceptance of high cyclohexane prices is poor, and large-volume transactions are scarce.

Regarding supply, the overall operating rate of domestic cyclohexane plants stands at 62-66%; facilities such as Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, and Haili have resumed operations following maintenance, whereas Shanxi Lanhua's 20,000-ton/year by-product unit has remained offline since July. Integrated units (linked to cyclohexanone/caprolactam production) continue to supply significant volumes to the merchant market; commercial inventories are above average, and there is no supply tightness at production sites. While brief shutdowns at some Shandong plants previously caused regional spot shortages, the situation has eased following restarts. The supply landscape is characterized by price increases not driven by actual shortages—stemming from a mix of holders firming up prices and traders offering concessions—limiting the upward elasticity of prices from the supply side.

Market Outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that, driven by extremely low port inventories of pure benzene and persistent geopolitical premiums in crude oil prices, cyclohexane prices are more likely to rise than fall, though the upside remains limited. The benchmark price for domestic premium-grade product is expected to range between 6,500 and 6,900 RMB/ton, while ex-factory prices in Shandong are projected to fluctuate with a firm tone within the 6,200-6,600 RMB/ton range; in East China, high-end prices are realigning with actual transaction levels as inflated quotes continue to be weeded out.

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