SunSirs: Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Maintains Growth Trend in First Half of Year

According to China Chemical Industry News, the nitrogen fertilizer industry maintained a growth trend during the first half of the year, with the supply-demand balance steadily improving. However, the industry faces multiple challenges ahead, including mounting pressure from production capacity expansion, the implementation of low-carbon policies, increased uncertainty in international markets, and significant shortcomings in statistical work. To ensure the industry's stable and healthy development, stakeholders must effectively coordinate efforts to guarantee supply and stabilize prices, regulate production capacity, upgrade technology, expand markets, and enhance statistical capabilities. These points were highlighted at the 2026 Nitrogen Fertilizer and Methanol Industry Economic Operation Analysis and Production Statistics Conference, held in Shexian County, Anhui Province, from August 19 to 21.

Gu Zongqin, the legal representative of the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, noted in his keynote report that the nitrogen fertilizer market in the first half of the year was characterized by "steady production growth, expanding consumption, optimized exports, and stable prices."

Specifically, national synthetic ammonia production reached 41.186 million tons (up 6.8% year-on-year); nitrogen fertilizer production totaled 28.533 million tons in terms of pure nitrogen (up 9.4%); and urea production hit 39.668 million tons (up 11.3%). Apparent consumption of nitrogen fertilizer and urea rose by 9.9% and 10.1%, respectively. Ammonium sulfate exports totaled 10.17 million tons (up 15.1%); urea exports proceeded in an orderly manner following the conclusion of the spring farming supply guarantee period, surging 552.1% year-on-year. The average domestic price of urea stood at 1,759 yuan per ton, remaining largely stable.

"Although the nitrogen fertilizer industry's total profit rebounded year-on-year in the first half of the year—with the sales profit margin reaching 4.9%—profits dropped sharply after July, returning to the previous year's levels," Gu Zongqin observed. He pointed out that the complex and volatile domestic and international landscape, combined with numerous market disruptions, presents ongoing challenges. Factors such as increasing pressure from capacity expansion, the implementation of low-carbon policies, heightened international market uncertainty, and deficiencies in statistical work will all impact the nitrogen fertilizer market. "In the second half of the year, new nitrogen fertilizer projects will come online, pushing total urea production capacity past 75 million tonnes per year, with annual output expected to hit a new record. With additional capacity set to be released next year, the industry will face mounting pressure regarding production capacity," stated Gu Zongqin. He noted that 2026 marks the year the industry transitions from the 'dual control of energy consumption' to the 'dual control of carbon emissions.' Rigid targets—such as carbon emission intensity, total emissions, and total coal consumption—impose stricter requirements on enterprises regarding technological upgrades, carbon management, and regulatory compliance. Furthermore, shortcomings in statistical work, weaknesses in energy consumption controls, and deficiencies in carbon management are collectively constraining the industry's high-quality development.

In response to this new landscape and these requirements, Gu Zongqin outlined five key priorities for the industry: first, resolutely curb disorderly expansion to reshape a healthy development pattern; second, strengthen industry self-discipline and coordinate the development of domestic and international markets; third, leverage technological innovation to cultivate 'new quality productive forces' within the industry; fourth, accelerate digital and intelligent transformation to enhance management and control efficiency; and fifth, ensure a stable supply and steady prices to solidify the foundations for both industrial and public welfare development.

The meeting also featured discussions on the operational status of the nitrogen fertilizer industry in key provinces and methods for calculating the carbon footprint of synthetic ammonia products, alongside specific guidance on nitrogen fertilizer production statistics and data reporting for urea industry self-discipline.

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