SunSirs: The Cyclohexane Market Was Experiencing Insufficient Demand, Resulting in a Situation Where There Were Prices but No Transactions

Price trends

According to data monitored by SunSirs, as of August 19, the average domestic price for premium-grade industrial cyclohexane stood at 6,433 RMB/ton. Prevailing ex-factory prices in Shandong ranged from 5,956 to 6,600 RMB/ton (6,600 RMB/ton for premium-grade by-product from Hualu Hengsheng; around 6,200 RMB/ton for traders' spot orders meeting national standards), while Shenmu Fuyou was priced at 5,956 RMB/ton. In East China, prices in the high-end range were retreating toward the sub-7,800 RMB/ton level; the market saw a scarcity of large orders, with activity driven primarily by small orders to meet immediate needs, and high-end quotes lacked actual transaction volume.

Market Analysis

Market Overview: Regarding plant operations, the overall operating rate for domestic cyclohexane units stands at 62–66%, with facilities such as Luxi, Hualu Hengsheng, and Haili having resumed production following maintenance. Although Shanxi Lanhua’s 20,000-ton/year by-product unit has remained offline since July, the volume of merchant sales from integrated facilities remains substantial, and market inventories are at a medium-to-high level. The price increases are driven by cost factors and price support from inventory holders rather than by supply shortages. With factory inventories above average and a scarcity of large orders, traders are generally offering price concessions to move stock; consequently, there is limited upward elasticity in prices from the supply side.

Regarding costs: Sinopec raised its posted price for pure benzene three times in mid-August, totaling an increase of 650 RMB/ton to 8,000 RMB/ton, while East China spot prices ranged from 8,180 to 8,300 RMB/ton. Commercial inventories at Jiangsu ports fell to 29,000 tonnes (down 27.5% month-on-month and 79.86% year-on-year), marking a historic low; margins from gasoline blending and disproportionation provided marginal support for aromatics. In the crude oil market, tensions between the US and Iran, combined with concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed WTI back above $80/bbl and Brent above $91/bbl. Consequently, the naphtha-benzene-cyclohexane cost chain shifted upward, with hydrogenated benzene prices also strengthening in tandem to 6,275 RMB/ton.

Downstream demand: The operating rate of the caprolactam industry is approximately 68%, with liquid-grade material trading at 12,100 RMB/ton in East China; while costs are driving prices up, passing on these high costs to downstream sectors is difficult—as PA6 operating rates hover around 64% and buying is limited to essential restocking due to low raw material inventories. Regarding adipic acid and cyclohexanone: the adipic acid industry is operating at about 64%, with prices rising to 8,100–8,300 RMB/ton in tandem with pure benzene; however, producers face theoretical losses exceeding 1,000 RMB/ton, and downstream operating rates are low (PBAT at ~20%, PA66 under 50%), resulting in weak willingness to chase higher prices. Cyclohexanone plants are operating at 70–75% capacity, with prices remaining flat to slightly higher.

On the supply side, price increases are driven by rising costs and holders holding firm on prices rather than by actual shortages. Factory inventories are above average, large orders are scarce, and traders are generally offering price concessions to move stock; consequently, the supply side offers limited upward price elasticity.

Market Outlook

Cyclohexane analysts at SunSirs believe that, driven by extremely low port inventories of pure benzene and persistent geopolitical premiums in crude oil prices, cyclohexane prices are poised to rise rather than fall; the benchmark price is expected to range from 6,500 to 6,900 RMB/ton, with Shandong ex-factory prices showing strength in the 6,200–6,600 RMB/ton range. However, should pure benzene prices surge and then retreat, the upward momentum for cyclohexane would stall, leading to price consolidation rather than an independent rise.

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