SunSirs: Carbon Black Market Prices Saw a Weak Decline Last Week (August 10-14)

Data monitored by SunSirs indicates that the carbon black market remained generally stable but weak last week. As of the 14th, the domestic market price for N220 carbon black stood at 8,485.71 RMB/ton, down 0.56% from the 8,533.33 RMB/ton recorded at the beginning of the week, yet up 18.02% year-on-year.

Regarding raw materials: Last week, the market for high-temperature coal tar shifted from a rising trend to a significant decline. As of August 13, mainstream trading prices in the Shandong region stood at 4,050 RMB/ton, marking a single-day drop of 220-320 RMB/ton. Prices for deep-processed products weakened, squeezing corporate profit margins and intensifying resistance to coal tar prices; furthermore, carbon black manufacturers—unable to bear the excessive cost of raw materials—showed reduced enthusiasm for participating in auctions, leading to a noticeable weakening of cost support from the raw material side.

On the supply side, carbon black supply saw a slight increase last week. The operating rate among sampled carbon black enterprises stood at 65.75%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous period. While a plant in Shanxi resumed operations following maintenance, a major plant in Shandong halted production due to unforeseen circumstances; meanwhile, manufacturers in other regions largely maintained low operating loads, resulting in limited overall supply growth.

Regarding the end market, downstream demand remained generally weak last week. Although tire manufacturers saw a slight rise in capacity utilization, insufficient end-market orders—with many companies maintaining production controls—limited the extent of this increase. Downstream tire enterprises showed limited willingness to accept high-priced orders, and actual transaction volumes fell short of expectations; market activity was driven primarily by essential demand and earlier pre-sale orders, resulting in a market landscape characterized by high price levels and sluggish trading.

Influencing factors: Last week, the market faced dual pressure from a sharp drop in costs and weak demand. The price of raw material coal tar plummeted, creating a significant bearish factor on the cost side; meanwhile, the end-market is in its traditional off-season, with tire production operating at low levels and purchasing driven primarily by immediate needs. Although carbon black producers sought to support prices, downstream resistance was strong, resulting in a stalemate in negotiations at higher price levels.

Market Outlook: Last week, the N220 carbon black market remained generally weak but stable, with mainstream prices (including tax and delivery) ranging from 8,400 to 8,600 yuan per tonne; expectations exist for a decline in new order prices. A sharp drop in raw material costs has weakened cost support, while sluggish downstream demand has weighed on transaction volumes. Looking ahead to next week, deepening losses among coking enterprises may tighten coal tar supplies, yet downstream deep-processing and carbon black companies show little enthusiasm for purchasing. While demand may pick up slightly as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the carbon black market is expected to remain in a state of weak consolidation in the short term.

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