SunSirs: The MDI Market Saw a Slight Rise Last Week (August 3-7)

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic MDI market saw a slight rise between August 3 and August 7. The average price was 17,866 RMB/ton at the start of the week and 18,066 RMB/ton on August 7, marking a weekly increase of 1.12% and a year-on-year rise of 14.35%. Frequent news regarding maintenance at major plants fueled expectations of tightening supply; consequently, factory supplies were limited, and prices remained firm. Amidst a tug-of-war between supply and demand, middlemen pushed prices up slightly; market inquiries increased—though transactions were primarily in small volumes—and the overall price level for MDI shifted upward.

Supply side: Tosoh's MDI plant in Japan, with a capacity of 80,000 tonnes per year, was shut down for maintenance in late July for a period of approximately one month. Tosoh's 200,000-tonne-per-year MDI plant in Japan is scheduled to shut down for maintenance in early September for about 45 days. Wanhua's 1.1-million-tonne-per-year MDI plant at the Yantai Industrial Park is set to halt production for maintenance starting August 10, 2026, with the work expected to last around 45 days.

Cost perspective: The market price level for benzene has declined. Expectations for the resumption of shipping through the strait have risen, suggesting a likely easing of the tight crude oil supply; consequently, crude oil prices have fallen, weakening cost-side support for benzene. Furthermore, the recent restart of domestic units that had previously undergone maintenance is expected to alleviate supply tightness, further driving a pullback in benzene prices.

Demand side: Downstream inquiries have been moderate; following price increases, transactions have consisted primarily of small orders, indicating insufficient demand support.

Market Outlook:

Expectations of tightening supply in the MDI market persist, and manufacturers remain firm on pricing; however, demand-side support is weak. Consequently, upward momentum is expected to face increased resistance in the short term. Close attention should be paid to market supply-demand dynamics and relevant news updates.

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