SunSirs: Domestic Sulfuric Acid Market Expected to Remain Weak and Consolidate

The domestic sulfuric acid market has recently exhibited a pattern of distinct regional divergence. On the supply side, a mix of maintenance and production restarts has resulted in a slight decline in overall capacity utilization. On the demand side, while operating rates for phosphate fertilizers have rebounded, the momentum remains limited, and demand in the chemical sector is sluggish; coupled with high cost support, the market continues to consolidate at a weak level, with room for transaction prices to drift lower. Supply side: Capacity utilization has dipped slightly, with marked regional supply disparities. Figure 1: Trend of domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization (%). Data source: Longzhong Information. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate fell slightly to 63.13%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week.

Last week, the domestic sulfuric acid capacity utilization rate also declined slightly to 63.13% (down 0.53 percentage points week-on-week); metal ore prices remained high and stagnant, maintaining pressure on sulfuric acid production costs.

Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to show regional divergence, with the general price level likely to continue drifting slightly lower. Regarding costs, sulfur prices are fluctuating at high levels with tight spot availability; despite a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, supply-side support remains. Prices for metal ores—such as pyrite, copper, lead, and zinc—also remain high and stagnant, keeping production cost pressures elevated and providing a floor for acid prices. On the supply side, domestic sulfuric acid supply is expected to rise slightly in the coming period as some previously idled units resume production, though the pace of restarts varies by region. Regions such as Hubei and East China may face pressure from increased supply, whereas Inner Mongolia and Gansu remain constrained by raw material availability and operating limits, resulting in relatively limited supply expansion. On the demand side, the phosphate fertilizer market is currently characterized by a strong wait-and-see attitude, though operating rates are expected to rise slightly as autumn fertilizer stockpiling progresses. However, the overall business climate in downstream chemical sectors remains lackluster, with continued weak demand for products such as titanium dioxide and dicalcium phosphate. Overall demand shows a slight downward trend, making it difficult to generate a significant boost to the market. Current market sentiment is characterized by a standoff; downstream buyers remain generally cautious, largely waiting for further price adjustments before entering the market, and the typical procurement window has yet to arrive in most regions.

Overall, the market is shaped by the tug-of-war between high costs and weak demand, with a rebound in supply adding localized pressure. The domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to remain sluggish and undergo consolidation this week; regional price disparities may widen, and the overall price level could drift slightly lower, though the decline will likely be limited by rigid cost constraints.

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